Stock Market Blog -Jul 4th

Happy 4th of July. The market continued to grind lower this week as we got more bad news from China slowing down, a slow housing market, weak consumer confidence, and a lousy jobs number for June on Friday. Unemployment sits at 9.5%.

New all time high this week: DLTR LQD


We just closed out a very ugly quarter!

New unemployment claims rose again, coming in at 472,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week:
(short week) We get a few Economic reports, along with earnings from FDO. Then the following week kicks off earnings season once again, along with options expiration on Friday Jul 16th., so start planning ahead.

Market commentary: We got more downside action again this week, and the market did in fact head all the way back down to the 'flash crash' lows! Next week's action is anybody's guess. We are so oversold, we could get a bounce, but the probability of dropping further is just as good, so be careful. I'm looking for a bounce heading into options expiration in just under two weeks (the put/call ratio on the indexes is very high).

The 3rd quarter will bring more of the same (as the 2nd quarter) in my opinion, unless we get a boost from some kind of stimulus. No jobs and more foreclosures = bad economy and bad stock market!

Commodities:
Oil prices dropped, closing near $72 per barrel.
Natural Gas closed around $4.70.
Gold dropped, closing around $1207.
The US Dollar index continued to drop, closing around 84.7
The 30 year Bond continued to rise, closing just over $127.

News:
Stocks Fall After Jobs Miss, Lose 4.5% for Week
Dow Falls 10% for Quarter7.9 million jobs lost - many forever
When Breadth Is This Bad, It Usually Gets Worse
Stimulus: The big bang is over
Will second-quarter GDP be weak?
Consumer Bankruptcy Filings at Highest Level Since 2005
Is There a Bottom in Sight for Commercial Real Estate?


No comments: