Stock Market Blog -May 1st

The market continued to rally higher this week as the US Dollar dropped further. The indexes are now at a three year high (the NASDAQ closed at a 10 year high). Bonds also rallied (normally an inverse relationship). Ben Bernanke, in the first Fed press conference ever, reiterated his low interest rate and money printing plan to stoke the economy. This continues to drive the dollar down.

Gold and Silver also rallied strongly on the weak dollar.
And the national debt is now over $14.5 trillion dollars!
New all time highs: AMZN APKT CAT DTV GLD/SLV MDY OXY XLP XRT
...SDS, QID, and TWM closed at all time lows! (inverse market ETFs)

AMZN popped, while RIMM dropped

New unemployment claims rose unexpectedly, this time to 429,000 (chart).
This week, five more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Monthly jobs report on Friday, a potential market mover.

Quarterly earnings season continues, to include reports from the following companies:
Mon: CHK
Tue: PFE MA LVS
Wed: RIGThu: EP V
Fri:
A handful of gold miners and solar companies report this week as well.

Market commentary: We did break through the double top on the S&P 500 this week (see chart above). Good earnings have been the driving force for the market (as well as the weak dollar). Watch for the monthly unemployment report next Friday as that can be a catalyst for market movement (up or down!). We continue to be in an uptrend, with the indexes above both the 20 and 50 period moving averages.

Note: the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) will be rebalanced as of Monday 2nd, reducing the weighting of AAPL, and increasing others like INTC and CSCO. Expect some price action in the stocks affected.

Relative performance of the major indexes since September

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $113.9 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied nicely, closing near $4.60.
Gold rallied further, closing near $1556, another record high!
Silver is approaching $50 -maybe nearing a short-term top.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $122'12.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 73.11.

News:
Stocks finish April sharply higher
GDP: Economic recovery stumbles
Investors, it's time to run and hide
One Million Exhausted Jobless Benefits in Past Year
Bernanke says economy needs more time to heal
The economy is stronger than headline numbers suggest.
What's wrong with America's economy?
A Reversal for Real Estate After Some Mild Gains

Microsoft stock stalls as profit margins soar
US Dollar Under Pressure, Euro at 16 Month High
How Low Can the Dollar Go?
Silver Reaches for Record
Downside Targets for Silver
Bank of America's New Credit Card Penalty Interest Rate Is Nearly 30%
PUTTING PAST BUBBLES TO SHAME