Stock Market Blog -Jun 30

We closed out the 2nd quarter with stocks starting to show some weakness, and with lots of losses in Gold, Bonds, and Commodities in general. Stocks could be headed for a bigger correction from the May top (chart below). Shares of AAPL closed below $400, a long way down from $705 when the iPhone 5 was announced. BBRY shares also dropped.

This week commodity prices continued to fall, with grains taking a big hit (Corn, Soybeans, Wheat). Coffee is at multi-year lows and may present a buying opportunity. Gold plunged again -end of quarter selling?? Bonds recovered a bit, but this quarter interest rates had their biggest run up in many years!

The Gold & Silver plunge

New all time highs:   AET, CBOE, DNKN, SBH, STX
All time lows:  --
Pops:  PTR, STEC    -Drops:  ACN, BBRY, WAG,

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly Jobs report!!
Upcoming Earnings reports: 

BlackBerry Posts Larger-Than-Expected Loss, Shares Plunge
Nike Earnings Run Past Forecasts; Shares Jump

Market Commentary

 
As I mentioned last week "look for setups to short the market on any rallies" -well we got the rally. Next week will be a short one, but we have the Jobs report which could move the market. If this really is a turn in the market from the top in May, we could see a lot more downside (SPX 1550 a good target for now?). We could be in for a rocky 3rd quarter.

Buy Gold and GDX now for a brief bounce?

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -resistance at the 50MA now?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $96.56
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.57
Gold plunged again, closing at $1223 -dropped under $1200 this time!
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $135.84
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 83.37

NEWS:
Stocks: Brutal June clouds start of year's 2nd half
Fed officials in damage control mode
Gold Posts Worst Quarter on Record

German Banks an Accident Waiting to Happen: Expert
Why China's Economy May Be Heading for a Crash
Can Rudd Stop the Rout in the Aussie Dollar?

Stock Market Blog -Jun 23rd

This was an ugly week for all markets -stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities, all sold off after the Fed updated their position on quantitative easing. Emerging markets continued to drop also (EEM, FXI, EWZ, IFN...). We'll have to see how the economy holds up as interest rates rise.

The indexes are now below their 50 day moving average, a signal to some that it's time to take profits, or exit the market until the trend turns up again.

ORCL dropped after reporting earnings

New all time highs:   CHTR, CI, RYAAY
All time lows:  NBG
Pops:  , ,    -Drops:  ORCL

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports:  BBBY, BBRY, MON, NKE, WAG,

Market Commentary

 
The indexes gave it up this week and closed below the 50MA, indicating further selling to come, maybe after a small rally since we are very oversold. That being the case, look for setups to short the market on any rallies. Volatility is on the rise, so you could also use Option trades to take advantage of the high volatility.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $93.69
Natural Gas was up & down, closing near $3.77
Gold plunged, closing at $1292 -now under $1300!
The 30 year Bond plunged, closing near $135.03
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 82.51

NEWS:
Week Ahead: Buckle Up as End of the Quarter Approaches
Everything Is Being Sold
Six positives to consider before you run for you life from the markets
Fed Shakes Up Global Markets as US Interest Rates Rise
10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs Above 2.5% on Fed Fears
Interest Rates Gone Wild?

Gold Prices Recover Some Ground and Settles at $1,292.00
Gold Could Test $1,000, Ignore ‘Snake-Oil Salesmen’ Says Trader
Brazil Riots Against Its Middle-Class Illusion
China's Credit Crunch Signals How Serious Beijing Is About Reform

Stock Market Blog -Jun 9th

The market recovered some of its recent losses with the rally on Thursday and Friday. However the economy hasn't changed so I suspect the rally won't last this time. The US unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.6%.  Bonds also dropped, along with Gold, and other commodities. Brazil and China continue to drop. Junk Bonds have been selling off too.

 New all time highs:   AXP, BRK.B, CERN, DLPH, SBUX
All time lows:
Pops:  , ,    -Drops: 

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports:  LULU

Market Commentary

 
The indexes bounced off the 50MA, just like it did on previous dips. We could be setting up for another leg up, but I suspect it's really setting up for another drop. This brief rally looks like short covering.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -correction

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $91.97
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.98
Gold was down, closing at $1392
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $141.06
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 83.40

NEWS:
3 reason the jobs numbers were bleh
U.S. Is Still 10 Million Jobs Away From Normal
Trouble Ahead at Apple

Stock Market Blog -Jun 2nd

The S&P500 started a down move on this final day in May -lets see what June brings. The DOW was down just over 200 points on Friday. Bonds have been selling off, so has Gold, while the US Dollar has been rising, and other currencies falling. Japanese markets sold off too. We could be finally seeing a turning point in the markets here -we'll have to see how long it lasts.

TSLA finally stalled this week...
High yield ETFs selling off (HYG)

Market starting a correction?

US dollar up-trend...

Real estate and Utilities breaking down..

New all time highs:   AEGR, AXP, CERN, JAZZ, LGF, TRIP,
All time lows:
Pops:  KKD, OVTI,    -Drops:  PANW

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly Jobs report on Friday.
Earnings reports:  DG

Market Commentary

 
Looks like we are beginning a correction in this extended rally. This could be the 'big' correction so many traders have been expecting. If we get a bounce, it may be a good shorting opportunity for market ETFs or individual stocks. Also, this was the worst month for the Bond market in a long time, with interest rates finally starting to go up .

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -correction

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $91.97
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.98
Gold was down, closing at $1392
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $141.06
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 83.40

NEWS:
Month-End Selloff: Stocks Drop 1%...
This Chart Shows Dow Should Be Lower...a Lot Lower
The dividend craze may be over

Stock Market Blog -May 26th

The market pulled back a bit this week after the Fed spoke on Wednesday. Will this be just another brief pullback in this 6 month rally, or a bigger correction? Only time will tell, but we are very extended at these levels. The US Dollar continues to rise, causing commodities to show weakness. Bonds continue to slide.

New all time highs:   BIIB, CERN, COST, D, DLPH, GNC, SNH, TRIP, TSLA
All time lows:
Pops:   -Drops: 

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports: 

Market Commentary

 

Next week we have only 4 trading days because of the holiday on Monday. Wednesday's 'peak' in all the indexes, along with the MACD indicator may be indicating a bigger pullback here. Earnings season is pretty much over, so there isn't much to power the market in one direction or the other. In the tech arena, AAPL still seems tired, while GOOG is still in a longer term up-trend. The Utilities sector (XLU) seems to be correcting . GLD is still  trying to find a bottom, and the Yen still pretty much seems like it wants to continue going lower.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -pullback?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $92.62
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.26
Gold was up, closing at $1467
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $149.1
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 82.38

NEWS: