Stock Market Blog -May 1st

The market continued to rally higher this week as the US Dollar dropped further. The indexes are now at a three year high (the NASDAQ closed at a 10 year high). Bonds also rallied (normally an inverse relationship). Ben Bernanke, in the first Fed press conference ever, reiterated his low interest rate and money printing plan to stoke the economy. This continues to drive the dollar down.

Gold and Silver also rallied strongly on the weak dollar.
And the national debt is now over $14.5 trillion dollars!
New all time highs: AMZN APKT CAT DTV GLD/SLV MDY OXY XLP XRT
...SDS, QID, and TWM closed at all time lows! (inverse market ETFs)

AMZN popped, while RIMM dropped

New unemployment claims rose unexpectedly, this time to 429,000 (chart).
This week, five more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Monthly jobs report on Friday, a potential market mover.

Quarterly earnings season continues, to include reports from the following companies:
Mon: CHK
Tue: PFE MA LVS
Wed: RIGThu: EP V
Fri:
A handful of gold miners and solar companies report this week as well.

Market commentary: We did break through the double top on the S&P 500 this week (see chart above). Good earnings have been the driving force for the market (as well as the weak dollar). Watch for the monthly unemployment report next Friday as that can be a catalyst for market movement (up or down!). We continue to be in an uptrend, with the indexes above both the 20 and 50 period moving averages.

Note: the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) will be rebalanced as of Monday 2nd, reducing the weighting of AAPL, and increasing others like INTC and CSCO. Expect some price action in the stocks affected.

Relative performance of the major indexes since September

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $113.9 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied nicely, closing near $4.60.
Gold rallied further, closing near $1556, another record high!
Silver is approaching $50 -maybe nearing a short-term top.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $122'12.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 73.11.

News:
Stocks finish April sharply higher
GDP: Economic recovery stumbles
Investors, it's time to run and hide
One Million Exhausted Jobless Benefits in Past Year
Bernanke says economy needs more time to heal
The economy is stronger than headline numbers suggest.
What's wrong with America's economy?
A Reversal for Real Estate After Some Mild Gains

Microsoft stock stalls as profit margins soar
US Dollar Under Pressure, Euro at 16 Month High
How Low Can the Dollar Go?
Silver Reaches for Record
Downside Targets for Silver
Bank of America's New Credit Card Penalty Interest Rate Is Nearly 30%
PUTTING PAST BUBBLES TO SHAME

Stock Market Blog -Apr 24th

The market saw a big drop on Monday, followed by a nice recovery the rest of the week. Positive earnings helped the rally.

AAPL, INTC, and VMW popped after reporting earnings

New unemployment claims dropped, this time to 403,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The Fed meets this week, so look for possible actions that might affect the markets.

Quarterly earnings season continues, to include reports from the following companies:

Mon: NFLX
Tue: AMZN F KO MMM UPS VLO
Wed: BA BIDU BP COP SBUX
Thu: MSFT PG XOM
Fri: CAT CVX MRK

Market commentary: Earnings will continue to be the driving force for the markets next week. The S&P500 could form a triple top, but if we get good earnings, it could easily break through that top (see above chart). The DOW has already taken out its prior top.

Once again, Gold and Silver continue to rally, along with most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $113 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.40.
Gold rallied further, closing over $1500!
The 30 year Bond was up slightly, closing near $121.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 74.

News:
Stocks sink after S&P warns on U.S. debt
S&P lowers its outlook: Could U.S. default on its debt?
US STOCKS-Wall St ends strong week with new earnings attitude

Don't Like a Weak Dollar? Might as Well Get Used to It
Silver, Gold Rise to Records as Asian Stocks Fall; Yen Weakens
Silver nears $50 an ounce; gold hits record
In U.S., 54% Have Stock Market Investments, Lowest Since 1999

Stock Market Blog -Apr 17th

The market recovered a bit on Thursday and Friday. If earnings reports are any indication though, of the four major companies reporting this week, all fell after reporting! (AA, JPM, GOOG, BAC). Bonds rallied, along with Gold and Silver. Major currencies rallied against the US Dollar too.

New all time highs: BIDU, MCP, MO, PRGO, SINA, XLP,

GOOG shares plunged $48 after reporting earnings on Thursday.


New unemployment claims rose to 412,000 (chart).
This week, six more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The markets are closed on Good Friday. Quarterly earnings season continues. Companies reporting include:

Mon: C, TXN
Tue: GS IBM INTC JNJ YHOO
Wed: AAPL T FCX TRV WFC
Thu: MCD GE MS DD MS

Market commentary: Earnings will be the driving force for the markets next week.

The VIX has dropped back to the low level we saw recently, which might indicate more downside for the market if you use the VIX as a contrarian indicator.

The RSI indicator is showing a negative divergence on the major indexes, indicating more downside for the markets as well.

Gold, and Silver continue to rally. Likewise for most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices pulled back, closing just under $110 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.20
Gold rallied further, closing near $1486! Another all time high.
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $120'17.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 75.

News:
Earnings deluge awaits investors
U.S. economy in rough patch. Will it last?
Goldman Calls Commodities Top: Is Now the Time to Sell?
Bank of America's Mortgage Curse
The Fed Rescue Program Too Bizarre to Be True
Ten Stocks That Might Be Ripe for a Sell-Off
Why Europe’s debt crisis isn’t over

Stock Market Blog -Apr 10th

New all time highs: BIDU, GLD, GG, MCP, SLV, SLW, XRT,

New unemployment claims dropped to 382,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Quarterly earnings season begins once again, with AA kicking things off on Monday. Other companies reporting include: JPM, GOOG, BAC

Market commentary: The S&P 500 seems to be stalled at the 1340 level. We'll see if earning next week will give it a boost, or cause further weakness like we saw on Friday.

Oil, Gold, and Silver continue to rally. Likewise for most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied even more, closing just above $113 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $4.03
Gold rallied further, closing near $1470! An all time high.
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $118'16.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 75.

News:
US Oil Settles Near $113, Highest Since Sept. 2008
Gold Miners In Breakout Mode As Dollar Slumps
Toxic Dollar: Why Nobody Seems to Want US Currency

Stock Market Blog -Mar 27th

The market recovered nicely this week, taking us back over the 1300 level on the S&P 500. Japan's woes continue, the bombing continues in Libya, and the market continues to go up!
Gold continues to climb too, hitting another record high this week.

Citi's stock can't seem to move up past $5, so they are doing a 10 for 1 reverse stock split to get the price up close to $50! You can fool some of the people some of the time...

RIMM dropped on earnings, while ORCL was up after reporting their earnings.

New all time highs: ABC, BIDU, CAT, CSX, CVX, CTSH, DTV, SINA


New unemployment claims dropped to 382,000 (chart).
This week, one more bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The big news next week will be the monthly Jobs report on Friday. We also continue to watch events in Japan, Libya, and Europe -and now Syria and Israel too.

Market commentary: The market has rallied back from the dip we saw in the first half of this month. Being the end of the quarter this week, I expect we will see some more positive movement for now. Oil might be doing a 'double top' for now.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just above $105 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied (finally!), closing near $4.40
Gold rallied, closing near $1426
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $120.
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing just over 76.

News:
U.S. stocks notch weekly gains
Citigroup Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Split
Sales of new U.S. homes tumble 16.9% to record low
Consumer sentiment falls sharply in March
iPad 2: Out of stock by Saturday
Michael Dell’s Very Big Stock Purchase
Gold futures notch record high

Another eurozone crisis is coming – this time it's Portugal
Japan reports rise in radioactive seawater

Stock Market Blog -Mar 20th

The market dropped early in the week, then recovered somewhat by Friday. Banks rallied on Fed news about being able to pay dividends again. The nuclear reactor situation in Japan worsened, while earthquake and tsunami victims are scrambling for help (seems like the news forgot about them). The US Dollar continued to drop, and Oil is back over $100 again.

New all time highs: BSFT, CSX


New unemployment claims dropped to 385,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). We continue to monitor the news out of Japan and the Middle East. GDP report on Friday too.

RIMM and ORCL report earnings on Thursday.

Market commentary: The market stumbled again this week, though it recovered a bit on Thursday and Friday. With all the bad news out there, I don't see much to hold the market up. We may be setting up for a larger correction in this two year rally. Keep your eye on the US Dollar too -if it starts to rally, it could hurt the market.

Now that we've started bombing Libya, next week could be an interesting one in the markets.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, then recovered, closing near $101 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $4.17
Gold dropped, then recovered, closing near $1416
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $123'11.
The US Dollar was down, closing just under 76. All major currencies rallied on Friday, except the US Dollar!

News:

Inflation pressure bubbles, home building dives
What the End of QE2 Means for the Market
The bull market is over – we're in a bear market now
What’s next for commodities with Japan in crisis
AT&T to buy T-Mobile USA for $39 billion
Florida: 18 Percent of Homes are Vacant

U.S. Missiles Strike Libyan Air-Defense Targets
West Plans More Strikes on Libya Despite Arab Criticism
BoJ Injects Another 5 Trillion Yen to Calm Market
Central Banks Set to Tighten Despite Japan Crisis

Stock Market Blog -Mar 13th

The big news this week was the huge earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The market however reacted to the up-side on Friday. The up-trend seems to be breaking down here, so I would use any rally to take profits.

New unemployment claims were back up again, this time to 397,000 (chart).
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Triple witching -expiration for Options, Futures...

Market commentary: The market faltered some more this week, so be careful. Being options expiration week for the 1st quarter, I expect we'll see a bounce next week (to take out all the shorts?).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $100 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.90
Gold dropped, closing near $1421 (quadruple top??)
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $122.
The US Dollar was up, closing just under 77.

News:
Stocks plunge on economic news, oil price swings
The Dow's Plunge: Should You Be Worried?
Pimco Move Could Send More Investors Out of Treasurys

Japan central bank injects $184B as stocks plunge
Second explosion at stricken Japan nuke plant

Stock Market Blog -Mar 6th

This was a rocky week, with big moves up, and big moves down. The monthly jobs report on Friday showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 8.9%, but the market sold off anyway.

Gold, Silver, and Oil hit new highs, as the US Dollar continued to drop.

New all time highs: APKT, CVX, DTV, NTES, PAY, PHK, PNRA, PRGO, SLV, SLW, TJX

New unemployment claims were down to 368,000, a 3 year low! (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The Treasury auctions $66 billion in notes and bonds.

Market commentary: The up-trend is still intact, and I expect we will see the market continue higher in coming weeks -too many bearish traders expecting it to go down! The weak US Dollar helps to push it up too.

This month marks the 2 year anniversary of this huge bull run, with some indexes now up over 100%.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices shot up again, closing near $104.4 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.8
Gold was up, closing near $1428.
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $120'26.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 76.4 -approaching a double bottom??

News:
Stocks: Dow tumbles on oil fears
Week Ahead: Oil Pressure to Remain on Stocks
Oil Ends Above $104 in Highest Close Since September '08
Jobless claims fall to nearly 3-year low
U.S. adds 192,000 jobs; jobless rate dips to 8.9%
Charting unemployment – good news & bad news
Home prices: The double-dip is near