Stock Market Blog -May 29th

The market dropped on Monday, then rallied back to recoup those losses by the end of the week. GDP numbers were disappointing however. Overall, the market has been down 4 weeks in a row. Bonds rallied again this week.

New all time highs: COH, CRM, GMCR, NFLX, NVS, TIF

5 Earnings Busters to Trade Now, Part I
Better Real Estate Investing: 4 High Yield REITs


New unemployment claims rose to 424,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Markets are closed on Monday for Memorial day. The monthly jobs report will be released on Friday, a potential market moving event.

Market commentary: If the S&P 500 can rally over the 1340 level, we could see more up-side in the market. Note that the last 2 rally attempts this month have both failed.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly up, closing just over $100 per barrel
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.50.
Gold was up, closing near $1535.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $125'25.
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 75.

News:
Stock investors brace for next round of weak data
Economic Growth Disappoints as GDP Gain Just 1.8%
Where's the Recovery? Hopes For Economic Rebound Fade
Why Corporate Bonds May Not Be Such a Smart Bet
Why Strong Dollar Hurts Stocks, and What You Can Do
Summer forecast: weak stocks and a big sell-off. Then QE3?
Government Doesn't Create Jobs
General Motors Will Never Repay Taxpayers

Overseas
Ten Reasons Why China is Different
Norway’s lessons for Brazil
Euro Falls on Europe Debt Concern
Fitch lowers outlook on Japan sovereign debt
The Audacity of Chinese Frauds

Chinese investment gone bad!

Stock Market Blog -May 22nd

Stocks were mixed for the week, making little progress overall. The chart below shows that the S&P500 is still near the 1340 level it hit in February. Caution would be advised for short term investors; for the long term, the up-trend is still intact (see 2nd chart below).

One bright spot, maybe, was the IPO for LinkedIn which opened at $45, shot up to $122, and closed on Friday around $93. Anyone remember 1999 -the 'dot-com' era?

Pops this week: CRM
Drops: ARUN, GPS, HPQ, SPLS
New all time highs: MCD, MO, XLP

The long term trend is still intact (well above the 200 day moving average)

New unemployment claims dropped to 409,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings: CPB, AMAT, NTAP

Market commentary: The market still seems weak, hovering at the 1340 price level on the S&P500! Bond prices are going up, and the US Dollar is rising. As the chart below shows the correlation, the market will probably drop some more if the US Dollar continues to rally.

This Chart Says It All

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly flat, closing around $99.50 per barrel
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.23.
Gold was up, closing near $1508.
Silver closed around $35
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $124'27.
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 75.57.
Corn and Wheat were both up

News:
Stock investors worry: Is ride getting rougher?
Treasurys add to week’s gains on Europe worries
US dips into pension funds as debt limit hit
A Shovel-Empty Waste Of $787 Billion
Pop till you drop (LinkedIn IPO)
Midcaps: The market's 'sweet spot'
Nasdaq Deja Vu
Meaningless ‘strong dollar’

Overseas
Fitch cuts Greece, warns against ‘re-profiling’
In Spain, protesters rally a battered nation

Stock Market Blog -May 15th

The market was indecisive this week, closing mostly unchanged. The US Dollar rally continued, putting more pressure on stocks and commodities. The Financial and Energy sectors were hardest hit.

AAPL and BIDU were weak; also SINA, SOHU
CSCO dropped after reporting earnings, and GS dropped further on a downgrade.

S&P sector leaders - XLV, XLU S&P sector laggards - XLB, XLF, XLE,

10 triple-digit stock winners

High priced DOW stocks have recently been hitting all time highs and pushing up the index
(the DOW is a 'price weighted' index!)

DOW laggards 3 Dow stocks that are in a slow death spiral

New unemployment claims dropped a bit to 434,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Options expiration on Friday.

Quarterly earnings season is winding down; companies reporting include: HD, WMT

Market commentary: We are back at the 1340ish support level in the S&P500. We could bounce or break from here -wait to see which direction it takes. The market seems to be getting weaker. We are basically back to the late February 1340 price level on the S&P!

The 'big picture' chart below shows that the NASDAQ and the Russell small caps are at long term resistance levels, while the DOW and S&P have yet to make it up there.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, then dropped, closing around $99.65 per barrel
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.25.
Gold was up slightly, closing near $1493.
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $124'14.
The US Dollar continued its rally, closing near 75.94.

The big picture...

News:
As stock market slows down, defensive stocks shine
Commercial real estate poisoning small banks
Fannie Mae seeks $8.5 billion more in federal aid

$6.2 trillion: A decade of deficits
Treasuries fall after disappointing 30-year auction
Has the Commodities Bubble Popped?
No more free lunch for commodities investors

Who's buying ETFs
Too Hot for Their Own Good? 10 Overheating Stocks Ripe for a Pullback
Rajaratnam convicted on all insider trading charges

Stock Market Blog -May 8th

This was a bad week in the market. The dollar rallied and as a result took everything down, including stocks. Commodities plunged (Oil, Gold, Silver, and more). The 'energy' sector was the hardest hit (see sector chart below).

Thursday's unemployment claims report was much higher than expected. And the jobs report on Friday had both good and bad news -more jobs were added, but the unemployment rate is back up to 9%. The market rallied in the morning, then gave it all back!

GMCR rallied (all time high), while OPEN plunged... BIDU dropped too, and ROST hit an all time high.


New unemployment claims rose unexpectedly, again, this time to 474,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). $72 billion more in Treasury auctions next week (selling dollars!)

Quarterly earnings season is winding down; companies reporting include:
Mon:
Tue: DIS
Wed: CSCO
Thu: NVDA
Fri:

Market commentary: After pulling back last week, we could now see the market resume the up-trend from the current support level in the S&P500. The direction next week would give us a hint as to whether we can expect more downside action. If the dollar continues to rally, it will have a negative impact on stocks (and commodities). Also, the pullback in Oil and Silver was so severe that we should at least see a little bounce.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices plunged from $115 to close around $97 per barrel!
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $4.23.
Gold plunged, closing near $1491.
Silver plunged, closing near 35.28
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $124'10.
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 75.

Most commodities were hammered this week as the dollar rallied!

News:
Unemployment Rate Back to 9%
IShares Silver ETF has $1 Billion Outflow—Worst Week Ever
Panic in the Pits: Silver Plunge Spreads to Oil, Copper
Mini 'Crashes' Hit Commodity Trade
Commodities Bubble Bursting? Not By a Long Shot: Pros
THE TIPPING POINT HAS ARRIVED

Citigroup Tries to Boost Image With a Reverse Stock Split
Fannie bailout nears $100 billion
Fannie Mae seeks $8.5 billion more in federal aid
Inevitability of a Default in Greece

Stock Market Blog -May 1st

The market continued to rally higher this week as the US Dollar dropped further. The indexes are now at a three year high (the NASDAQ closed at a 10 year high). Bonds also rallied (normally an inverse relationship). Ben Bernanke, in the first Fed press conference ever, reiterated his low interest rate and money printing plan to stoke the economy. This continues to drive the dollar down.

Gold and Silver also rallied strongly on the weak dollar.
And the national debt is now over $14.5 trillion dollars!
New all time highs: AMZN APKT CAT DTV GLD/SLV MDY OXY XLP XRT
...SDS, QID, and TWM closed at all time lows! (inverse market ETFs)

AMZN popped, while RIMM dropped

New unemployment claims rose unexpectedly, this time to 429,000 (chart).
This week, five more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Monthly jobs report on Friday, a potential market mover.

Quarterly earnings season continues, to include reports from the following companies:
Mon: CHK
Tue: PFE MA LVS
Wed: RIGThu: EP V
Fri:
A handful of gold miners and solar companies report this week as well.

Market commentary: We did break through the double top on the S&P 500 this week (see chart above). Good earnings have been the driving force for the market (as well as the weak dollar). Watch for the monthly unemployment report next Friday as that can be a catalyst for market movement (up or down!). We continue to be in an uptrend, with the indexes above both the 20 and 50 period moving averages.

Note: the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) will be rebalanced as of Monday 2nd, reducing the weighting of AAPL, and increasing others like INTC and CSCO. Expect some price action in the stocks affected.

Relative performance of the major indexes since September

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $113.9 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied nicely, closing near $4.60.
Gold rallied further, closing near $1556, another record high!
Silver is approaching $50 -maybe nearing a short-term top.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $122'12.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 73.11.

News:
Stocks finish April sharply higher
GDP: Economic recovery stumbles
Investors, it's time to run and hide
One Million Exhausted Jobless Benefits in Past Year
Bernanke says economy needs more time to heal
The economy is stronger than headline numbers suggest.
What's wrong with America's economy?
A Reversal for Real Estate After Some Mild Gains

Microsoft stock stalls as profit margins soar
US Dollar Under Pressure, Euro at 16 Month High
How Low Can the Dollar Go?
Silver Reaches for Record
Downside Targets for Silver
Bank of America's New Credit Card Penalty Interest Rate Is Nearly 30%
PUTTING PAST BUBBLES TO SHAME

Stock Market Blog -Apr 24th

The market saw a big drop on Monday, followed by a nice recovery the rest of the week. Positive earnings helped the rally.

AAPL, INTC, and VMW popped after reporting earnings

New unemployment claims dropped, this time to 403,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The Fed meets this week, so look for possible actions that might affect the markets.

Quarterly earnings season continues, to include reports from the following companies:

Mon: NFLX
Tue: AMZN F KO MMM UPS VLO
Wed: BA BIDU BP COP SBUX
Thu: MSFT PG XOM
Fri: CAT CVX MRK

Market commentary: Earnings will continue to be the driving force for the markets next week. The S&P500 could form a triple top, but if we get good earnings, it could easily break through that top (see above chart). The DOW has already taken out its prior top.

Once again, Gold and Silver continue to rally, along with most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $113 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.40.
Gold rallied further, closing over $1500!
The 30 year Bond was up slightly, closing near $121.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 74.

News:
Stocks sink after S&P warns on U.S. debt
S&P lowers its outlook: Could U.S. default on its debt?
US STOCKS-Wall St ends strong week with new earnings attitude

Don't Like a Weak Dollar? Might as Well Get Used to It
Silver, Gold Rise to Records as Asian Stocks Fall; Yen Weakens
Silver nears $50 an ounce; gold hits record
In U.S., 54% Have Stock Market Investments, Lowest Since 1999

Stock Market Blog -Apr 17th

The market recovered a bit on Thursday and Friday. If earnings reports are any indication though, of the four major companies reporting this week, all fell after reporting! (AA, JPM, GOOG, BAC). Bonds rallied, along with Gold and Silver. Major currencies rallied against the US Dollar too.

New all time highs: BIDU, MCP, MO, PRGO, SINA, XLP,

GOOG shares plunged $48 after reporting earnings on Thursday.


New unemployment claims rose to 412,000 (chart).
This week, six more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The markets are closed on Good Friday. Quarterly earnings season continues. Companies reporting include:

Mon: C, TXN
Tue: GS IBM INTC JNJ YHOO
Wed: AAPL T FCX TRV WFC
Thu: MCD GE MS DD MS

Market commentary: Earnings will be the driving force for the markets next week.

The VIX has dropped back to the low level we saw recently, which might indicate more downside for the market if you use the VIX as a contrarian indicator.

The RSI indicator is showing a negative divergence on the major indexes, indicating more downside for the markets as well.

Gold, and Silver continue to rally. Likewise for most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices pulled back, closing just under $110 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.20
Gold rallied further, closing near $1486! Another all time high.
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $120'17.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 75.

News:
Earnings deluge awaits investors
U.S. economy in rough patch. Will it last?
Goldman Calls Commodities Top: Is Now the Time to Sell?
Bank of America's Mortgage Curse
The Fed Rescue Program Too Bizarre to Be True
Ten Stocks That Might Be Ripe for a Sell-Off
Why Europe’s debt crisis isn’t over

Stock Market Blog -Apr 10th

New all time highs: BIDU, GLD, GG, MCP, SLV, SLW, XRT,

New unemployment claims dropped to 382,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Quarterly earnings season begins once again, with AA kicking things off on Monday. Other companies reporting include: JPM, GOOG, BAC

Market commentary: The S&P 500 seems to be stalled at the 1340 level. We'll see if earning next week will give it a boost, or cause further weakness like we saw on Friday.

Oil, Gold, and Silver continue to rally. Likewise for most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied even more, closing just above $113 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $4.03
Gold rallied further, closing near $1470! An all time high.
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $118'16.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 75.

News:
US Oil Settles Near $113, Highest Since Sept. 2008
Gold Miners In Breakout Mode As Dollar Slumps
Toxic Dollar: Why Nobody Seems to Want US Currency