Stock Market Blog -Jul 28th

The market pulled back a bit this week as many companies reported earnings. We'll get another indication of direction next week as more companies report. Gold continued to climb, while Bond prices seem to be edging up.

Earnings Pops: FB, BIDU, SBUX, TRIP, VMW
Earnings Drops: CROX, EXPE, SWI

New all time highs:   AMZN, CELG, DLPH, ESRX, GILD, JNJ, OCN, SE, SBUX, TRIP, MYL,
All time lows:  --

Hope you were on the right side of one of these!

Next week: Economic reports Fed meeting and Monthly Jobs report.
Upcoming Earnings reports:  
Mon -HLF
Tue -DDD, MRK, PFE
Wed -MA, WFM
Thu -BP, LNKD, PG, XOM
Fri -CVX

Market Commentary

 
Big week coming up -Fed meeting, monthly Jobs report, GDP, and more earnings! The market looks 'toppy' here and just needs a catalyst or it to roll over, so be careful.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -topping?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was down, closing near $104.70 -still over $100!
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.55
Gold was up again, closing at $1321
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $134.72
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 81.77

NEWS:
Dow recovers from 150-point drop to log 5-week win streak
Earnings week ahead: Media and oil giants in focus
(Vid) Amazon stock still worth owning: Pro
Google's $35 Chromecast vs. the $100 Apple TV
Is Meredith Whitney finally right about muni bonds? 
JPMorgan quits physical commodities business

Stock Market Blog -Jul 21st

This week, the city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the market continued to rally, in spite of missed earnings from a number of large tech companies. Next week we'll be flooded with more earnings reports -watch for possible market volatility. Also note that Bond prices have been moving up over the past two weeks.

MSFT had its biggest earnings miss in 12 years. IBM, INTC, MSFT, GOOG -big tech stocks' earnings have been somewhat disappointing so far. I'm guessing we'll see more of the same from AAPL and FB next week. ISRG and EBAY also dropped after reporting earnings.

On the positive side, GE, CMG, SLB, and YHOO rallied after reporting earnings.

New all time highs:   APC, COP, CVS, JNJ, GILD, HON, MMM, WFC, UNH, UTX, STX, WDC
All time lows:  --

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports:  
Mon -MCD, NFLX, HAL, TXN
Tue -AAPL, DD, MO, T, UPS, UTX,
Wed -BA, BIDU, CAT, F, FB, LLY, PEP, QCOM, V
Thu -AMZN, CELG, CL, BIIB, BMY, GILD, MMM, SBUX
Fri -

Market Commentary

 

Watch for market reaction to earnings this week, the busiest week for earnings, including AAPL, FB, NFLX, and AMZN. I still think the risk is to the downside here. Also Gold has been steadily recovering from the recent lows of under $1200.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still moving up

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up again, closing near $108.05 -still over $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.79
Gold was up, closing at $1293
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $135.50
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 82.71

NEWS:
Dow, S&P 500 end 4th winning week
Jobless Claims See Largest Weekly Drop Since April
Key Earnings Reports Next Week
Earnings reports could shut down the tech surge

Gold settles at one-month high amid US stimulus hopes
Oil -Brent-WTI Spread Approaches Parity
Detroit files for bankruptcy
Detroit bankruptcy could hit millions of retirees

Stock Market Blog -Jul 14th

The market continues up, maybe to a double top?

New all time highs:  
All time lows:  --
Pops:  , -Drops:  ,

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports: 
CMG, IBM, INTC, GOOG, GE, MSFT, YHOO

Market Commentary

 
Looks like we did re-visit the mid-June highs! Where we go from here, I think will depend primarily on how the market reacts to the earnings reports.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still moving up

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $105.95 -still over $100!
Natural Gas was flat, closing near $3.64
Gold moved back up, closing at $1277
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $133.94
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 83.16

NEWS:
Surprise! Huge US budget surplus shatters record

Stock Market Blog -Jul 7th

The week was positive for the market, with some help from the monthly Jobs report on Friday. Bonds and Gold continued to drop. Oil prices were up after the tensions and overthrow of the government in Egypt. Things seem to be stirring up in Europe again too (financial matters that is...), while China seems to be slowing down.

New all time highs:   DFS, DLPH, STX, SBUX, V, WFM
All time lows:  -- NBG
Pops:  , -Drops:  ,

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports:   AA, JPM, WFC, YUM

Market Commentary

 
The market rallied after the Jobs report, and got over the congestion level, so we could see more up-side. If the rally continues this week, we'll probably re-visit the mid-June highs again. Earnings reports will be the next catalyst for the markets.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -moving up

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $103.22 -over $100!
Natural Gas was flat, closing near $3.61
Gold plunged again, closing at $1212
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $132.65!
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 84.69

NEWS:
Stocks Surge 1% on Strong Jobs Report; Dow Reclaims 15,000 Level
Yields Soar as US Jobs Data Stokes Fed Fears
How Much Pain Will Bond Investors Tolerate?
One Eye on Earnings, the Other on Bonds
Don’t Get Too Excited About Today’s Jobs Data

Stock Market Blog -Jun 30

We closed out the 2nd quarter with stocks starting to show some weakness, and with lots of losses in Gold, Bonds, and Commodities in general. Stocks could be headed for a bigger correction from the May top (chart below). Shares of AAPL closed below $400, a long way down from $705 when the iPhone 5 was announced. BBRY shares also dropped.

This week commodity prices continued to fall, with grains taking a big hit (Corn, Soybeans, Wheat). Coffee is at multi-year lows and may present a buying opportunity. Gold plunged again -end of quarter selling?? Bonds recovered a bit, but this quarter interest rates had their biggest run up in many years!

The Gold & Silver plunge

New all time highs:   AET, CBOE, DNKN, SBH, STX
All time lows:  --
Pops:  PTR, STEC    -Drops:  ACN, BBRY, WAG,

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly Jobs report!!
Upcoming Earnings reports: 

BlackBerry Posts Larger-Than-Expected Loss, Shares Plunge
Nike Earnings Run Past Forecasts; Shares Jump

Market Commentary

 
As I mentioned last week "look for setups to short the market on any rallies" -well we got the rally. Next week will be a short one, but we have the Jobs report which could move the market. If this really is a turn in the market from the top in May, we could see a lot more downside (SPX 1550 a good target for now?). We could be in for a rocky 3rd quarter.

Buy Gold and GDX now for a brief bounce?

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -resistance at the 50MA now?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $96.56
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.57
Gold plunged again, closing at $1223 -dropped under $1200 this time!
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $135.84
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 83.37

NEWS:
Stocks: Brutal June clouds start of year's 2nd half
Fed officials in damage control mode
Gold Posts Worst Quarter on Record

German Banks an Accident Waiting to Happen: Expert
Why China's Economy May Be Heading for a Crash
Can Rudd Stop the Rout in the Aussie Dollar?

Stock Market Blog -Jun 23rd

This was an ugly week for all markets -stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities, all sold off after the Fed updated their position on quantitative easing. Emerging markets continued to drop also (EEM, FXI, EWZ, IFN...). We'll have to see how the economy holds up as interest rates rise.

The indexes are now below their 50 day moving average, a signal to some that it's time to take profits, or exit the market until the trend turns up again.

ORCL dropped after reporting earnings

New all time highs:   CHTR, CI, RYAAY
All time lows:  NBG
Pops:  , ,    -Drops:  ORCL

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports:  BBBY, BBRY, MON, NKE, WAG,

Market Commentary

 
The indexes gave it up this week and closed below the 50MA, indicating further selling to come, maybe after a small rally since we are very oversold. That being the case, look for setups to short the market on any rallies. Volatility is on the rise, so you could also use Option trades to take advantage of the high volatility.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $93.69
Natural Gas was up & down, closing near $3.77
Gold plunged, closing at $1292 -now under $1300!
The 30 year Bond plunged, closing near $135.03
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 82.51

NEWS:
Week Ahead: Buckle Up as End of the Quarter Approaches
Everything Is Being Sold
Six positives to consider before you run for you life from the markets
Fed Shakes Up Global Markets as US Interest Rates Rise
10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs Above 2.5% on Fed Fears
Interest Rates Gone Wild?

Gold Prices Recover Some Ground and Settles at $1,292.00
Gold Could Test $1,000, Ignore ‘Snake-Oil Salesmen’ Says Trader
Brazil Riots Against Its Middle-Class Illusion
China's Credit Crunch Signals How Serious Beijing Is About Reform

Stock Market Blog -Jun 9th

The market recovered some of its recent losses with the rally on Thursday and Friday. However the economy hasn't changed so I suspect the rally won't last this time. The US unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.6%.  Bonds also dropped, along with Gold, and other commodities. Brazil and China continue to drop. Junk Bonds have been selling off too.

 New all time highs:   AXP, BRK.B, CERN, DLPH, SBUX
All time lows:
Pops:  , ,    -Drops: 

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports:  LULU

Market Commentary

 
The indexes bounced off the 50MA, just like it did on previous dips. We could be setting up for another leg up, but I suspect it's really setting up for another drop. This brief rally looks like short covering.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -correction

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $91.97
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.98
Gold was down, closing at $1392
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $141.06
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 83.40

NEWS:
3 reason the jobs numbers were bleh
U.S. Is Still 10 Million Jobs Away From Normal
Trouble Ahead at Apple

Stock Market Blog -Jun 2nd

The S&P500 started a down move on this final day in May -lets see what June brings. The DOW was down just over 200 points on Friday. Bonds have been selling off, so has Gold, while the US Dollar has been rising, and other currencies falling. Japanese markets sold off too. We could be finally seeing a turning point in the markets here -we'll have to see how long it lasts.

TSLA finally stalled this week...
High yield ETFs selling off (HYG)

Market starting a correction?

US dollar up-trend...

Real estate and Utilities breaking down..

New all time highs:   AEGR, AXP, CERN, JAZZ, LGF, TRIP,
All time lows:
Pops:  KKD, OVTI,    -Drops:  PANW

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly Jobs report on Friday.
Earnings reports:  DG

Market Commentary

 
Looks like we are beginning a correction in this extended rally. This could be the 'big' correction so many traders have been expecting. If we get a bounce, it may be a good shorting opportunity for market ETFs or individual stocks. Also, this was the worst month for the Bond market in a long time, with interest rates finally starting to go up .

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -correction

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $91.97
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.98
Gold was down, closing at $1392
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $141.06
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 83.40

NEWS:
Month-End Selloff: Stocks Drop 1%...
This Chart Shows Dow Should Be Lower...a Lot Lower
The dividend craze may be over