Stock Market Update -Nov 29th

The market ended more or less flat for the week, after dropping on Friday on news of the Dubai debt problem. We seem to be stuck in a trading range for the past two weeks as investors continue to get more jittery about this market (see chart below).

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 466,000! (chart). -finally under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
No bank shutdowns to report this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to fall, closing the week around $76 per barrel. Natural Gas jumped up, closing around $5.20. And we saw record Gold prices again this week, closing around $1174. The US Dollar index was down again, closing around the 75 level. Bond prices continued to rise!


Next week we get the all important monthly 'jobs' report on Friday, a potential market mover.

Market analysis: We seem to be stuck in a trading range for the past two weeks. The market needs some good news if it is to rally any further at this point. Volume seems to be drying up too...


Behind the Great Stock Rally of 2009
Stocks and commodities spooked by Dubai World worries
Gold prices climb above $1,190 on Globex
Central Bank Buying Spurs a Gold Rush
European shares tumble amid Dubai debt worries
As one crisis recedes, the fiscal one may be only beginning
Dollar falls to 14-year low vs yen, touching 86.51
Treasuries Gain Most This Month on Dubai’s Debt Payment Delay
The FDIC Is $8.2 Billion in the Hole

Stock Market Update -Nov 22nd

The markets sputtered a bit this week to end mostly unchanged. We may be topping out here as we see a mixed picture over the past week and the past month (see chart). There was a big drop in housing starts reported this week, and mortgage delinquencies set a new record in the third quarter of 2009.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 505,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but trending down)
Another bank was shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were mostly flat closing the week around $78 per barrel. Natural Gas fell a bit to close around $4.50. We saw record Gold prices again this week, closing around $1163. The US Dollar index was up a bit, closing around the 75 level. Bond prices were up for the week.


Next week is a shortened trading week because of the Thanksgiving holiday. All eyes are on Black Friday sales.

Market analysis: The market seems to be stalling at this point. Retail sales on Friday may give it a push in one direction or the other. I believe that traders should book some profits at this level, anticipating a pullback. The chart is still bullish however for longer term investors.

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Treasury Yield Plunge Sends Warning
The FHA Is Broke
New tale of Detroit’s woe: Pontiac Silverdome sold for $583,000
The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated
U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High
Jobless Rate Up in 29 States, Hitting Records in 4 of Them
GM has post-bankruptcy loss of $1.15 billion

Graphic: Prime borrowers behind on mortgages
Delinquent Mortgages Equal to Three Times the Balanced For-Sale Inventory
Mortgage Delinquencies Set New Record
Housing Recovery Built on Sand
The Coming Deficit Disaster
A Foolish View of America's Debt
$4.8 trillion - Interest on U.S. debt
Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government
Latest Bullish Sign for Gold: Central Banks Are Big Buyers

Stock Market Update -Nov 15th

Another 'up' week for the markets, with the S&P500 having regained its losses from mid-October, and the DOW having surpassed the mid-October high. The small caps however have not regained even half of those losses, so the rally might be in question. The consumer sentiment report on Friday was worse than expected, and the trade deficit was also worse than expected.

The thanksgiving holiday sale season next week will tell us some more about how much consumers are actually willing to spend at this point.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 502,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but trending down)
Three more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell to close the week around $76 per barrel. Natural Gas fell to close around $4.40. Gold prices rallied to close around $1116 this week. The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged for the week closing around the 75 level. Bond prices were up for the week.

Next week there are a couple of economic reports which could move the market, a few more earnings reports, and Options expiration on Friday. The huge put-call ratio on the indexes might help the market stay up for the week -a contrarian indicator (a high put-call ratio = option traders are very bearish!)

Market analysis: The S&P 500 did in fact climb back up to the 1100 level I mentioned last week, but only stayed there for a day (above chart). I continue to believe that the market will be under some pressure going forward, but it might continue to hold up this week with the options traders being very bearish on the major indexes (a contrarian view).

Stock rally: Two weeks and counting
Housing market still faces a big glut
FHA reserves fall below 2% minimum, auditor says
Derivatives: A Banking Time Bomb Waiting to Go Off
Ambac warns it may file for bankruptcy
More Stimulus Equals More Unemployment
Betting Your Dollar's Bottoming
Which big country will default first?
Pfizer Broke the Law by Promoting Drugs for Unapproved Uses

Stock Market Update -Nov 8th

This was a green week for the market! (see middle chart below). The DOW is back over 10,000 again, even though unemployment is now at 10.2%, following 22 straight months of job losses and $800 billion in government stimulus (almost 3 million more jobs have been lost since the stimulus was announced). Seems like they are stimulating more unemployment! Speaking of which, unemployment benefits were extended yet again for up to 20 weeks. Also Fannie Mae announced a deal for homeowners (who can't afford their home) to now rent the home from the government -interesting chart!

Earnings season is almost over now, so the market will be mostly driven by news events. This week Warren Buffet bought BNI, a railroad company for $26 billion.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 512,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Five more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up then down to close the week around $77 per barrel. Natural Gas fell to close at $4.60. Gold prices hit $1100 this week, as India buys 200 tons from the IMF! The US Dollar index was down for the week closing just under the 76 level. Bond prices ended mostly unchanged.

Next week we get earnings reports from DIS and WMT among others, and more bond sales from the Treasury to raise money. The bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veteran's Day.

Market analysis: The market turned back up this week, bouncing off the 1030 level on the S&P 500. It could continue all the way back up to the recent high at 1100, or it could turn back down again around 1075 (forming a bearish head & shoulders pattern). I expect the latter.

Unemployment hits 10.2%
Fears of Market Bubble Prompt Investors to Seek Exit Strategy
20 more weeks of benefits for the unemployed
October Bankruptcy Filings Set New Post-2005 Record
Fannie Mae asks for $15 billion in additional funding
What to do about Fannie and Freddie: Restructure -- or terminate?
The Fed and Fannie Mae: Throwing Money Down a Black Hole
Freddie Mac loses $6.3B in 3Q

Credit cards gouge consumers ahead of new law
Consumer debt drops for record eighth straight month
Gold futures top $1,100, oil prices sink on economic worries
JPMorgan Settlement: Bank To Pay SEC Over $700M Over Charges Of Illegal Payments
It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Fed maintains promise to keep rates low
Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Stock Market Update -Nov 1st

Except for a rally on Thursday after the GDP report, the market was down for another week (I wrote last week "...We could see another 'market down, prop up the bonds' week"). Also this was the first monthly loss in the S&P since the rally began in March. We could be at a turning point in this nine month rally. Banks are in the headlines again, with the financial sector showing a lot of weakness.

New Unemployment claims for this week came in at 530,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Nine more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell from the high to close the week around $77 per barrel. Natural Gas was back up to the $5.00 level. Other commodities gave up some ground as the dollar regained some strength. Gold prices were down as well. The US Dollar index closed up for the week around the 76 level. Bond prices were up as the stock market fell.

The national debt crossed the $12 trillion mark this week (see clock on the left). The government doesn't seem to be too concerned though!

The Dollar relationship to the Stock market

Next week we get more earnings reports including Ford, Cisco, and Starbucks. We also have the Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday, and the monthly Jobs report on Friday, both potentially big market moving events. We will probably see unemployment finally pushing over 10%.

Market analysis: The market was down again this week, on heavy volume, and closed October as the weakest month since the March rally started. We could be in for a bigger correction. As an investor, now would be a good time to get defensive and hedge or protect your gains. As a trader, hopefully you are already out of any long positions.

Note that BIDU was down $50 on Monday after they reported earnings. RIMM continues to breakdown, and AAPL finally started to crack this week too -all market leaders on the NASDAQ.

Small banking empire collapses; 9 fail in 1 day
CIT files for bankruptcy
Exxon Mobil earnings plunge 68%
Citigroup Shares Tumble After Analyst Sees Major Writedown
GMAC seeking third bailout - report
Do banks have something to hide?
Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
What's Still Wrong with Wall Street

U.S. GDP rises 3.5% as stimulus kicks in
Stimulus creates 640,000 jobs
Jobs will return -- in 2012
Be Prepared for the Worst
China’s Recovery Strengthens, Adding Room for Stimulus Cuts
Forget China, Brazil's a cheaper investment
Don't Argue with Paul Tudor Jones about Gold

Stock Market Update -Oct 25th

This week the market showed some signs of weakness. Strong earnings from AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and others kept the market from falling further (see chart below; the Technology sector was the only one up this week). The DOW also fell back below the 10,000 level, and Oil prices continued to rise.

New Unemployment claims for this week rose to 531,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Seven more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to rise, closing the week around $80 per barrel. Natural Gas remained in a trading range, closing around $4.80. Other commodities rose too (gas, corn, soybeans, wheat, etc).

The US Dollar stabilized a bit, keeping Gold prices in check as well. Bond prices fell further (higher long term interest rates).


Next week we get another barrage of earnings reports, including some of the large oil companies. Also the 3rd quarter GDP report on Thursday, which could be a market mover! This one could be a big disappointment.

Another huge week for government borrowing too, as over $100 billion in bonds will be issued next week. We could see another 'market down, prop up the bonds' week...

Market analysis: We had very strong earnings last week, but the market stumbled. We could see more of the same next week. During earnings season, it's difficult to gauge market direction with any real degree of accuracy so again, be careful. We could see some more downside action.

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How Apple is gaining on Microsoft
Amazon shares hit all-time high
Leading indicators up 1% in September
Home sales rise 9.4 pct. in Sept., beat forecast
Keeping up with an avalanche of troubled mortgages

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Goldman Sachs Is Robbing Us Blind
Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
U.S. maxes out on credit
Dollar Depreciation: Denial or Acceptance?
Follow The Money Into Emerging Markets?

Stock Market Update -Oct 18th

The market continued to rally this week after srong earnings from Intel, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Citi and Bank of America reported losses. The Financials overall are starting to pull back a bit (see chart below), while the Energy sector continues to do well. The weak dollar also helped the market rally. The DOW finally topped the 10,000 mark, but was not able to hold that level.

New Unemployment claims for this week fell to 514,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but shrinking)
Another bank was shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up again, closing the week around $78 per barrel, while Natural Gas seems to be in a trading range, closing around $4.80. The US Dollar dropped further this week, keeping Gold prices up. Bond prices continued to fall.

By the way, how is the auto business doing? Here is an excerpt from an article I read this week: "China’s auto sales jumped 78% in September. US auto sales fell 41%..."


Next week we get a slew of earnings reports. Some of the companies reporting include:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
AAPL	CAT	AMGN	AXP	HON
BBT	KO	EBAY	AMZN	SLB
TXN	PFE	FCX	COF	MSFT
	YHOO	MS	MRK
		WFC	MMM
			MCD
			UPS

Market analysis: The rally continues until Wall Street decides that the party is over, so enjoy the run, but be careful. Apple reports earnings on Monday after the market closes and could be an indicator of how the rest of the week might turn out

Earnings:
Goldman Sachs Profit Climbs Well Past Estimates
JPMorgan Crushes Profit Expectations
Bank of America posts $2.2 billion loss
Citigroup posts loss, takes $8 bln in credit losses
Google profit, sales top estimates

Bailed-Out Banks Raking In Big Profits
CIT Says CEO Peek to Resign; Bankruptcy Looms
Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'
Foreclosures On Pace To Hit 3.5 Million
Recession Will Be 'Full-Blown Depression': Strategist
The Greatest Depression Is Coming
U.S. deficit biggest since 1945
U.S. ran deficit of $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009

It's Official: No Social Security Increase
Harvard’s Bet on Interest Rate Rise Cost $500 Million to Exit
SEC Enforcement Division Hires Goldman Sachs VP As COO
Bonuses Put Goldman in Public Relations Bind
A Monster $500+ Billion Market Is Rising in the East
Google's Android Ready To Explode Past The iPhone

Baby survives after falling under train (video)

Stock Market Update -Oct 11th

The market was up this week, hitting a new high for the year as Alcoa reported better than expected earnings, and as we saw further weakness in the US Dollar (I suggested last week, we could see a contrarian rally as everyone was expecting further weakness!). Energy and Financials have been leading the way for the past month (see chart below). The big story this week was Gold soaring to new highs!



New Unemployment claims for this week were 521,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
No bank shutdowns this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up, closing this week around $72 per barrel, Natural Gas was both up and down, closing around $4.70. The US Dollar dropped further this week, pushing Gold prices up to new highs around $1060! Bond prices tumbled.

The US Dollar has been making headline news this week. Here is a 'big picture' look at where we are right now (20 year chart):


Next week kicks off a new earnings season with the following companies among those reporting: Tue: INTC, JNJ Wed: JPM Thu: C, GS, GOOG, IBM Fri: BAC, GE. Don't forget that this week we also have Option expiration on Friday.

Market analysis: We moved higher this week as I suspected we would. I think we can easily see more upside this coming week as we get earnings reports from some of the big banks and technology companies. DOW 10,000 is an attractive target for the market, in spite of what the chart readers might think!

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