Stock Market Blog -Aug 22

Another down week in the market, as weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected, now back at 500,000! Energy and Financials led the way down this week, while Bonds rallied again.

Earnings season is pretty much over now, and so is the summer! September is just around the corner and so we'll see what's in store for the fall.

CRM, INTU, and MRVL surged this week.
MFE and POT also surged on takeover news.

New all time highs: AAP, AZO, BIDU, CRM, FDO, INTU, MCD, MO, PCLN
Also AGG, LQD (bonds), and AZK, EGO (gold)

ISRG and SHLD dropped.

New unemployment claims were up again, coming in at 500,000 (chart).
This week, eight more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get the usual Economic reports, including GDP and Consumer sentiment. Companies reporting earnings next week include BHP, JDSU, MDT,and NOVL. More Bond sales next week too.

Market commentary: We could continue to see more selling all the way back down to the early July low. There is still no clear direction at this point. If I were to guess, I think we might get an oversold bounce next week.

Bonds continue to rally!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $74 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing around $4.1.
Gold rallied, closing around $1227.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 83.
The 30 year Bond rallied again, closing around $134.

News:
Dow and S&P Down for Second Week, NASDAQ Up
Weekly Jobless Claims Post Surprise Jump, Hit 500,000
It's doom and gloom all over again
US Says Bankruptcies Reach Nearly 5-Year High
A roster of dividend-paying stocks to consider

401(k) withdrawals spike
The age of no more tears investing (Bonds)
Treasury yields reach new lows on flight to safety
China Cuts Long-Term Treasuries By Most Ever as Yields Drop
China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy

Stock Market Blog -Aug15 th

The market dropped this week after the Fed meeting on Tuesday. The trade deficit numbers were also disappointing.

CSCO plunged after reporting earnings

New all time highs: BIDU, FDO, MO, MCD, NFLX
New all time lows: DRL


New unemployment claims were up again, coming in at 484,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get the usual Economic reports, along with more earnings reports. This is also options expiration week. Some of the companies reporting earnings:

MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI
LOW	HD	TGT	HPQ
	WMT	AMAT	DELL
			SHLD

Market commentary: We got a sell-off this week as the market hit resistance at the 1130 level on the S&P500 (prior mid-June top). We could see more selling all the way back down to the early July low, or the market could surprise everyone and reverse course this option expiration week! There is no clear direction at this point.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $75 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly flat, closing around $4.3.
Gold rallied, closing around $1215.
The US Dollar index rallied, closing around 83.
The 30 year Bond rallied again, closing just over $132.

News:
NASDAQ Logs its 4th Worst Week of the Year
Stocks Slide, Treasuries Rally on Growth Concern
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead
Big Week Ahead for Retail Traders?
Junk bond market hits record
New 30-yr auction at lowest yield since March 2009
Bonds Sneeze, but Is It Contagious?

U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It: Laurence Kotlikoff
U.S. "Virtually Certain" To Fall Into New Recession: Rosenberg
GM Profit Rises to $1.54 Billion, Plans IPO Up to $16 Billion
The numbers don't lie: Mobile devices overtaking PCs
Android poised to be No. 2 smartphone OS worldwide
Fannie and Freddie must die

Stock Market Blog -Aug 8th

The market rallied nicely on Monday, but was flat for the rest of the week. The jobs report on Friday was a disappointment and the market sold off , though it recovered most of the losses near the end of the day on Friday.

The US Dollar continues to head further down.
Gold closed back above $1200 on Friday.

PCLN surged on earnings

New all time highs: AGG BIDU CTSH CRM CMI ED HAS FFIV FDO MCD MO & others...

New unemployment claims were up again, coming in at 479,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get the usual Economic reports, along with more earnings reports. Some of the companies reporting earnings:

MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI
	CREE	BHP	NVDA
	DIS	CSCO	RGLD

Market commentary: The market will probably react to more earnings this week, though the number of reports is starting to taper off. Of significance is a Fed meeting on Tuesday, which could be a catalyst for the next move in the market.

I'm still of the opinion that the market wants to move higher from here. The S&P500 needs to get through resistance of around 1130...

Commodities (charts):
Oil was up a bit closing near $81 per barrel.
Natural Gas sank down to close at $4.46.
Gold rallied back up, closing around $1203.
The US Dollar index was down again, closing around 80.50
The 30 year Bond rallied again, closing just over $129.
'Wheat' has rocketed up for the past month!

News:
Dow Rises for Third Consecutive Week
S&P 500 clears major resistance without volume
Unemployment Duration Far Surpasses Levels Seen in Early 1980s
Discouraging news from payrolls report
H-P CEO Hurd resigns after sexual harassment probe

Home ownership falls to lowest level in 11 years
Why Bonds Tell a Better Story Than Stocks
Dollar near bear market territory
Is the party about to end in Brazil?
Shale: The Good News On Energy

Stock Market Blog -Aug 1st

We closed out July with the best monthly gains for the year. The market was down most of the week though, closing mostly unchanged. The GDP report for the second quarter was a disappointing 2.4%, and consumer confidence sank as well.

The US Dollar has been in a steady decline since the beginning of June. Commodity prices have also risen during that time.

New all time highs this week: BIDU, FFIV


New unemployment claims dropped, coming in at 457,000 (chart).
This week, five more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get the usual Economic reports, along with more earnings reports. The big report next week will be the monthly payroll report. Some of the companies reporting earnings:

MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI
	MA	DVN	CBOE
	PG	EP	DTV
	PFE
	PCLN
	WFMI

Market commentary: The market will continue to be driven by earnings again this week, as well as economic reports, including the payroll report on Friday. We could see a nice upturn again after having pulled back last week.

Commodities (charts):
Oil closed near $79 per barrel, mostly unchanged.
Natural Gas was up again, closing around $4.92.
Gold dropped, closing around $1182.
The US Dollar index was down again, closing around 81.70
The 30 year Bond rallied on Friday, closing just under $129.

News:
GDP slows in second quarter to 2.4% annual rate
Consumer Confidence Falls, Lowest Since February
Dollar Declines to Lowest Level in 2010 as U.S. Growth Slows
With Recovery Slowing, the Jobs Outlook Dims
Greenspan Says Decline in U.S. Home Prices Might Bring Return of Recession
China manufacturing growth slows
Tough Times Ahead for Junk Bond Issuers
FDIC Bank Failures

Stock Market Blog -Jul 25th

We saw strong gains in the market this week, with most companies reporting better than expected earnings. The S&P500 closed just over the 1100 level.

AAPL, AXP, CAT, F, KO, MMM, QCOM, T, UPS, VMW, VZ, all rallied on earnings.
AMZN dropped $15 after reporting earnings, but recovered most of the loss.
YHOO also disappointed.

Lots of New All Time Highs this week! AAP, AZO, CRM, CTSH, FFIV -bonds AGG, LQD


New unemployment claims jumped, coming in at 464,000 (chart).
This week, seven banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get the usual Economic reports, along with more earnings reports. Also, the Treasury will sell another $100 billion plus in bonds next week. Some of the companies reporting earnings:

MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI
	DB	BA	ABX	MRK
	DD	COP	XOM	CVX
	ODP		MOT
	VLO		POT
	BP		SNE

Market commentary: The market will be driven by earnings again this week and we could see the rally continue, up to the mid-June high. The indexes , along with many stocks appear to be in an ABC up pattern.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing near $79 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing around $4.56.
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing around $1188.
The US Dollar index was up and down, closing around 82.50
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing just over $127.

News:
US Stocks Have Second Best Week of the Year
American Express Q2 Profit Triples, Beats Estimate
Is the Next Leg of the Bull About To Begin?
White House: Unemployment at 9% until 2012
Jobless benefits restored for millions
Federal budget deficit to exceed $1.4 trillion in 2010 and 2011
Commercial Real Estate's Death Knell May Have Been Premature
Bullion buyers bank on gold coins
What the bond guru sees coming

Stock Market Blog -Jul 18th

The market was up for the week until the big sell off on Friday! (see chart below). Bad news on consumer sentiment, and earnings reports from GOOG, and GE, BAC, JPM, and C, all helped to push the DOW down 261 points on Friday (also Options expiration day). The Fed also chimed in with a lowered outlook on the economy.

INTC reported great earnings on Tuesday, but the shares sold off.
GOOG shares were down $34 after reporting earnings.

The National debt just crossed another $250 billion! (now $13.25 trillion)



New unemployment claims fell, coming in at 429,000 (chart).
This week, six banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get the usual Economic reports, along with a barrage of earnings reports. Some of the companies reporting:

MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI
IBM	GS	KO	MMM,T,CAT	F
TXN	JNJ,BSX	EMC	AXP	MCD
HAL	AAPL	FCX	NOK
	YHOO	MS,WFC	AMZN
	JNPR	SBUX	MSFT
	VMW	BIDU	UPS
		EBAY,QCOM
		ISRG

Market commentary: The market will be driven by 'earnings' this week. It could move in either direction, but the charts may be indicating a 'top' here, in a downward channel. It may also be consolidating between 9750 and 10500 in the DOW.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing near $76 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing around $4.50.
Gold was down, closing around $1188.
The US Dollar index continued to drop, closing around 82.66
The 30 year Bond rallied! -closed just over $128.

News:
US Stocks Battered; Financials Lead The Fall; DJIA Off 220
U.S. Consumer Price Index falls 0.1% in June
Google Earnings Miss Wall Street Expectations, Shares Fall
Goldman pays $550 mln to settle CDO suit with SEC
Senate OKs sweeping bank-reform bill; sends it to Obama
The Debt Supercycle

Chinese bank to launch world’s biggest stock offering
Should you buy energy stocks?
Motorola Droid X Sold Out

Stock Market Blog -Jul 11th

We got a nice rally this week, despite the lack of any market moving news. Could be an oversold bounce, or maybe we're in for a better quarter than the last one!

All time highs this week: AZO NEM


New unemployment claims rose again, coming in at 454,000 (chart).
This week, four banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get a few Economic reports, along with earnings season kickoff.
Some of the companies reporting:

MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI
AA	INTC		JPM	BAC
			AMD	C
			GOOG	GE

Don't forget options expiration on Friday!

Market commentary: We did get that 'oversold' bounce I mentioned last week, and I think we can continue to see more upside action this week. Options expire on Friday, and the put/call ratio on the indexes is very high! Earnings will also be a big market driver.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices moved up, closing near $76 per barrel.
Natural Gas fell, to close around $4.40.
Gold was up slightly, closing around $1209.
The US Dollar index continued to drop, closing around 84.15
The 30 year Bond finally dropped, closing just over $126.

News:
U.S. stocks rise, log best week in nearly a year
US growth gauge falls to lowest since July
Foreclosure Friday: The Top 1 Percent Stick It to the Banks
States of Crisis
Why Pimco Likes Stocks
Good News on the Junk-Bond Market

Microsoft's Bold Attempt to Repair Health Care
China Will Be World's Largest IPO Market This Year, PriceWaterhouse Says
Why China's growth will slow
Central banks are trading their gold for cash. What do they know that we don't?
Goldman, Morgan Stanley EPS Estimates Cut by Whitney

Stock Market Blog -Jul 4th

Happy 4th of July. The market continued to grind lower this week as we got more bad news from China slowing down, a slow housing market, weak consumer confidence, and a lousy jobs number for June on Friday. Unemployment sits at 9.5%.

New all time high this week: DLTR LQD

We just closed out a very ugly quarter!

New unemployment claims rose again, coming in at 472,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (short week) We get a few Economic reports, along with earnings from FDO. Then the following week kicks off earnings season once again, along with options expiration on Friday Jul 16th., so start planning ahead.

Market commentary: We got more downside action again this week, and the market did in fact head all the way back down to the 'flash crash' lows! Next week's action is anybody's guess. We are so oversold, we could get a bounce, but the probability of dropping further is just as good, so be careful. I'm looking for a bounce heading into options expiration in just under two weeks (the put/call ratio on the indexes is very high).

The 3rd quarter will bring more of the same (as the 2nd quarter) in my opinion, unless we get a boost from some kind of stimulus. No jobs and more foreclosures = bad economy and bad stock market!

Commodities:
Oil prices dropped, closing near $72 per barrel.
Natural Gas closed around $4.70.
Gold dropped, closing around $1207.
The US Dollar index continued to drop, closing around 84.7
The 30 year Bond continued to rise, closing just over $127.

News:
Stocks Fall After Jobs Miss, Lose 4.5% for Week
Dow Falls 10% for Quarter7.9 million jobs lost - many forever
When Breadth Is This Bad, It Usually Gets Worse
Stimulus: The big bang is over
Will second-quarter GDP be weak?
Consumer Bankruptcy Filings at Highest Level Since 2005
Is There a Bottom in Sight for Commercial Real Estate?

Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs