Stock Market Blog -Mar 25th

The market pulled back this week, though leading stocks seemed to hold their ground, so the rally may not be over yet (we still have to finish out the quarter). Oil and gas prices remain at elevated levels, and I expect this will eventually take a toll on on investor bullishness.  We saw another mini 'flash crash' on Friday on the Bats exchange (ironically, on the day Bats was supposed to go public!) Bonds rallied as stocks dipped lower.

New all time highs:   AAPL, ABV, ACN, CMG, DFS, DG, DKS, MNST, NUS, PM, PX, RGR, SPG, SBUX, XRT
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects! Also throw in: VXX, TVIX
Pops:  LULU, RGR, WDC...
Drops: KBH (home builders), NKE

Beware of leveraged ETFs/ETNs that don't accurately track their underlying.

BTW -that's a drop from 450 to 17 vs. a drop from 45 to 15!!

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings reports from BBY and RIMM.

Market Commentary

This week's pullback might be a set-up for another rally into the end of the quarter. Also keep in mind however, the VIX (volatility indicator -chart above) is at a 'low' point which suggests we could soon see a reversal in this market rally.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -one more rally coming this week?


Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down a bit, closing near $106.87
Natural Gas was down some more, closing near $2.27
Gold recovered a bit, closing near $1662
30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks pulled back, closing near $137.81
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.57

NEWS:
U.S. stocks close tough week on bright note
First Quarter On Track to Be Best in 14 years
Is The VIX Flashing A Buy Signal?
Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets
Apple: New iPad Sales Total 3 Million
IPad: The PC Killer

TVIX Plummets Nearly 30% Despite Rallying VIX (TVIX, VXX)
Bank of America Tests Rental Program as Alternative to Foreclosure 
Food Stamp Usage Continues To Set Records
Spain Is Not Out of the Woods Yet

Stock Market Blog -Mar 18th

The market continued to move higher, helped by the Fed on Tuesday, and also by AAPL. The NASDAQ broke over the 3000 level, which it first crossed in 1999!

Banks also rallied as results of the stress test were mostly positive. Bonds have been slowly falling in value and finally started selling off this week after the Fed meeting. Gold also dropped, while Oil maintained  lofty levels. Natural Gas prices continued to linger at 10 year lows.

New all time highs:   BUD, CMG, DG, HLF, IBM, MHS, NKE, PM, SBUX, SPG

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS -the usual suspects!
Pops:  Banks! (stress test). Also AAPL of course.
Drops:

S&P 500: 3rd time crossing above 1400 in the past 12 years

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings reports from NKE, ORCL, RIMM, and LULU

Market Commentary

The S&P500 broke out above last year's high, which could be a bullish sign. We closed the week over the 1400 level. Looks like we could close out this 1st quarter with a bang! AAPL continues to drive higher, helping the NASDAQ and the S&P500 because it is a large component of those indexes. The small cap Russell 2000 is still lagging (IWM); maybe we'll see it break out in the coming weeks. I expect the rally will continue into the end of the 1st quarter.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -broke 'above' resistance this week (so much for a double top...)
Natural Gas -how long will these low prices hold?
SBUX -coffee's still hot!
Bonds -breaking down (below)

 Bonds finally broke down

The VIX (volatility index) is approaching a bottom again -is the stock rally 'almost' over?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were unchanged, closing near $107.06
Natural Gas was up slightly, closing near $2.33
Gold sold off again, closing near $1655
30 year Bond futures dropped (chart below), closing near $136.44
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.08

NEWS:
U.S. stock indexes end 2.4% up for week
Stock Market Today Ends Mixed, But At Multiyear Highs
Treasurys fall to end worst week since July
Is the bond bubble finally bursting? 
America’s recovery is neither robust nor dramatic. But it is real
Here Comes The 2012 Tidal Wave Of Foreclosures
How to Spot a Company That's at the Top of its Game
Apple continues to defy gravity as stock hits $600
It's not your father's Nasdaq 3,000
This market is headed higher

Is MF Global Getting a Free Pass?
Coal, Oil, Solar Stocks Rally On Multitude Of Causes
Natural gas: U.S. energy market’s best bargain?
Scarce Oil? U.S. Has 60 Times More Than Obama Claims
Brace for China's impending crash

Stock Market Blog -Mar 11th

The market dropped early in the week, only to rally back up again, ending mostly flat for the week. We got 'some' closure to the Greece situation (again!). Basically, Greece officially defaulted on their debt this week. Also, a good 'Jobs' report on Friday helped stocks to rally. Meanwhile, gas prices continue to climb.

Bonds continued to drop -looking weak for 2012! Maybe Bonds topped on Dec 19th, when the stock market rally started.

New all time highs:  ABV, BWLD, CCI, CMG, COH, DG, DKS, HLF, ISRG, IBM, KMI, LULU, MHS, MNST, NKE, ORLY, ROST, TJX, SBUX, CVS, NKE, PETM, SBH, UA, YUM, XRT (retailers), and more...

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS -the usual suspects!
Pops:  SBUX, SWHC
Drops: GMCR, MCD

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Another Fed meeting is scheduled this week, and we get quarterly Options expiration on Friday.

Market Commentary

The market re-bounded nicely this week to the previous high of a week earlier, and could be setting up for a double top here. Volume was somewhat low on this week's rally. The market could just hold up at these levels a while longer, as quarterly Options expiration approaches on Friday. Keep your powder dry till we get a better sense of direction from here.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -setting up for a double top?
HPQ -Ugly chart! (DOW tech stock)
IBM -Pretty chart (DOW tech stock)
BP -can it break out over $50?
SBUX -how far can coffee go?
CMG -how far can Mexican fast food go?

INTC approaching a multi-year high

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing near $107.13
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.28 -a 10 year low!
Gold was mostly flat, closing near $1713
30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $140.53
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 79.99

NEWS:
Stocks: Bull market enters fourth year
Time To Change Trading Strategy
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Set to Default on $5.27 Million GO Bond Payments
Starbucks Will Roast Green Mountain: Analyst
BofA to slash mortgage balances by $100,000 or more
More Boomers Selling Homes, but Who Will Buy Them?
iPad pre-sales sold out worldwide in two days

Import surge sends China trade to decade-deep deficit
Greece Default Is Official; Insurance Payouts Triggered

Stock Market Blog -Mar 4th

The market was mostly flat this week (S&P 500), though the Small Caps have started trending down (IWM). Bonds and Gold dropped, as did the Euro, mostly after Ben Bernake's testimony. AAPL reached another all time high, and crossed the $500 billion level in market value. Oil touched $110 this week!

New all time highs:  AAPL, AZO, BWA, CCI, CIG, CMG, COH, DISCA, DKS, FAST, HLF, ISRG, IBM, LULU, MNST, NKE, ORLY, PAA, PM, ROST, TDC, TJX, UA, and more...

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!
Pops:  AZO
Drops: FSLR

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
All eyes will be on the monthly Jobs report due on Friday morning. Also, Apple should announce the iPad 3 this week. This could cause another pop in the stock price, or a 'sell the news' pullback!

Market Commentary

The S&P 500 finally took out the May 2011 high (1370); we could see a pullback at this resistance level. The Small Caps have already been pulling back, and may provide a small clue on the next move in the markets. The US Dollar has started to move back up as well, another negative for stocks. From a purely 'technical' standpoint though, the rally is still very much intact.

Meanwhile, the DOW contiinues to flirt with 13000 and the NASDAQ with 3000.

This week's charts:
S&P 500 -finally took out the 2011 high of 1370
AZO -wow!
Nasdaq 100 vs Small Caps -big divergence!

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $106.70
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.48
Gold tumbled, closing near $1709
30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.22
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 79.46

NEWS:

Why some investors are worried about Dow 13,000
What’s the big deal about Nasdaq 3,000?
1450 or 1250: What’s S&P More Likely to Print, Next?
London Is Eating New York’s Lunch
Moody's Downgrades Greece to Lowest Rating on Scale
Putin Wins Presidency And New Six Year Term

Stock Market Blog -Feb 26th

The rally continues -when will it stop, no one knows! Stocks and Bonds were both up this week -normally they move in opposite directions. Gold and Oil were up as well. Solar stocks pulled back.

New all time highs:  AAPL, ABV, ALXN, CAT, CCI, CMG, DKS, FAST, ISRG, JAZZ, KOG, IBM, LULU, MA, MNST, ORLY, PAA, PM, SWI, TDC, TJX,V, and more...
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!

Pops: CRM, GRMN, INTU, SHLD, VVUS
Drops: DECK, DELL, HPQ, WMT,

Weekly Unemployment claims -lower

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings reports next week: AZO, COST, PCLN

Market Commentary

The S&P 500 is still aiming to take out the May 2011 highs before we see any pullback (as I've mentioned a couple of times before). The Nasdaq 'Composite' just took out its 2007 high; the Nasdaq 100 took out that high way back in January 2011! The Euro rallied this week, helping to push up stocks. The US Dollar also looks like it may be headed lower, so this stock rally could go on for some time (see DOW chart below).

The DOW is still flirting with 13000 and the NASDAQ with 3000, looking to push higher. Rising Oil and Gas prices however could soon cap this rally, so it may be wise to take some profits here.

This week's charts:
S&P 500 -still trying to take out the 2011 high
MUNI Bond ETF dropped this week

DOW 14000 ??

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices rallied further, closing near $109.77 -we could see $115
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.55
Gold was higher, closing near $1776
30 year Bond futures rallied a bit, closing near $143
The US Dollar was down, closing near 78.40

NEWS:
S&P Posts Best Close Since June 2008
Jim Cramer’s 10 Earnings to Watch Next Week
US Data Could Drive Stocks Higher Amid Oil and Europe Risks
Oil prices rise on continued concern about Iran
Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

A new recession seems inevitable
If Economy's Improving, Why Is Dependency Growing?
Biggest Muni ETF Posts Biggest Two-Day Slump Since October 2008
Greek Debt Deal Merely Buys Time: World Bank's Zoellick
Why Capital Flows Uphill

Stock Market Blog -Feb 19th

The markets rallied again this week, helped by good unemployment numbers on Thursday.
High oil and gas prices though could begin to dampen market sentiment, along with the fact that the market has been in a non-stop rally mode since before Christmas. What happens with Greece and the Euro next week will probably have the biggest influence on market direction however.

New all time highs:
AAPL, AAP, ABV, APC, BWLD, CCI, CMI, CVS, EC, GPC, PAA, PM, TJX, V, and more...
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!
Pops: AAPL; DELL, INTC, and MSFT broke out too!
Drops:  GILD. Also, VVUS dropped & popped!

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Markets are closed on Monday.
Earnings reports next week: CHK, DELL, DECK, HD, HPQ, MNST, JCP, M, TGT, WMT

Market Commentary

Looks like the S&P 500 is still aiming to take out the May 2011 highs before we see any pullback (as I mentioned last week); also the IWM still has some catching up to do if it is to take out the 2011 high. From a 'technical' perspective, there are no signals indicating a turn in the market yet, so keep your finger off the trigger if you are inclined to go short! Many 'shorts' have been burned in this extended rally so far. The DOW is flirting with 13000 and the NASDAQ with 3000.

After hitting $500 for the first time, AAPL may now be showing signs of topping after a huge 1 day swing in price from top to bottom last week!


This week's charts:
S&P 500 -still ready to take out the 2011 high
INTC and MSFT at multi-year highs(below)
HD rally

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing near $103.24
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $2.65
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1725
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $142.09
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.46

NEWS:
Stocks Log Weekly Gain, Dow Just Shy of 13,000
Nasdaq nears 3,000 on wings of Apple, Microsoft
Nasdaq hits decade high
Wall St Week Ahead: Stocks may strain to hold 9-mo highs
Which Stocks Look Ready to Pop and Drop with Earnings Next Week?
S&P 500 Hits 1350 Again, But Can It Hold This Time?
Is Apple (AAPL) a $17,000 Stock?
What Buffett Didn't Tell You

Treasury to sell $99 billion in notes, bonds
Under Twist, The Fed Has Purchased 91% Of All Gross Issuance In Long-Dated US Treasurys
China Cuts Bank Reserve Ratios
Why Are the Chinese Buying Record Quantities of Gold?
Oil ends at 9-month high on geopolitics, Greece
Greece is broken, and can’t be fixed

Stock Market Blog -Feb 12th

The market rallied again this week, but on Friday showed the first sign of some weakness (the VIX spiked this week too). Earnings season is now winding down, and the market could start to take a break from this huge rally. If it does, we'll see the Bonds rally once more.

New all time highs: AAPL, ALXN, BWLD, COH, DKS, PAA SBH, V
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!
Pops & Drops: 

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports  
BIDU, GM, NVDA, NTAP  report earnings next week.

Market Commentary

 The market is ready for a pullback, and with Options expiration this week, we could see that pullback happen soon. AAPL is about to take out the $500 price level too, but is a bit bit stretched at this point. We'll probably see the S&P 500 finally take out the May 2011 highs before a meaningful pullback occurs (the DOW and the NASDAQ have already taken it out). The Russell 2000 Small Cap is the weakest of the indexes.


This week's charts:
S&P 500 -ready to take out the 2011 high

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing near $98.67
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $2.48
Gold dropped, closing near $1725
The 30 year Bond futures was mostly unchanged, closing near $142.78
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.23

NEWS:
Wall St Week Ahead: Bulls will not be tamed by weak earnings
Apple Jumps, Is It Time To Bail? 
U.S. banks agree to $25 billion in homeowner help

Stock Market Blog -Feb 5th

The market continued to rally, with a big jump on Friday after a positive surprise in the jobs report. The NASDAQ 100 is now well over the 2008 highs (pre-financial crisis), though the other indexes still have a lot of catching up to do. Bonds remain at an elevated level.

New all time highs: AAPL, ABV, COH, FAST, FISV, INTU, MA, NKE, RAX, SWI, V, YUM , WYN
All time lows:  FAZ, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!

Pops & Drops:  The Financials popped this week.
Also COCO, GMCR, GIL, ISRG, STX, SWI, MA, & V

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports   Earnings reports from the following companies:

Mon: YUM
Tue:  DIS, KO, BWLD, PNRA
Wed: CSCO, WFM
Thu: 
Fri: 

Market Commentary

In spite of the seemingly non-stop rally from Dec 19th, the market continues to power higher. Of course, I'm still looking for a pullback at some point. The longer term trend seems to indicate that the market wants to catch up to the 2008 highs (the Nasdaq 100 has already passed it by a huge amount) -that means DOW 14000! As earnings season winds down, we could see buying start to slow down.

This week's charts:
XLF -Financials recovering
XLB -Basic Materials recovering
NASDAQ -over the 2008 high
SPG -commercial real estate! (so much for the crash)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down, closing near $97.84
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.50
Gold rallied again, closing near $1740
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $142.41
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.06

NEWS:
Dow Logs Highest Close Since May 2008
Dow at 4-year high, Nasdaq hits 11-year high
U.S. GAINS 243,000 JOBS
Unusual Volume Leaders: Gilead Sciences Spikes
What Cramer's Watching Next Week

Treasury Considers Going Negative on T-Bills