Stock Market Update -Dec 27th

Nice rally this week! The market finally broke out of its trading range of the last five weeks. The IWM small-cap ETF moved up to take out its October high as I suggested it might in the previous two posts. The NASDAQ also broke out nicely, along with the Semis, while Bonds took a big tumble.

New all time highs! AAPL, AMZN, IBM (ORCL, PCLN at nine year highs).

New unemployment claims for this week came in lower at 452,000 (chart).
No bank shutdowns this week! (list).
FYI -the debt clock is now over the $12.25 trillion level!


Commodities:
Oil prices moved up strongly, closing the week around $78 per barrel.
Natural Gas was little changed, closing around $5.65.
Gold prices were rangebound, closing around $1104.
The US Dollar index rallied, then pulled back, closing around 78.
Bond prices plunged, closing around 115 on the 30 year!

Next week: Not much as far as events go, except for the government borrowing more money with another big Treasury auction ($118 billion).

Market analysis: We saw a nice run this week in the NASDAQ and the IWM (small caps), though with light volume. I expect the market will continue the rally into January, but we won't really get a good read on the market until after the holidays, and when earnings start rolling in.

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Schwarzenegger Seeks Obama’s Help for Deficit Relief
Luxury Homeowners Default at Double the Rate of the Market
New-home sales crater as subsidy wanes
Japan jobs, price data grim but expected
Success in 2010 Requires Investing in Other Countries

Stock Market Update -Dec 20th

More sideways action in the market this week (5 weeks now!), closing around 1100 on the S&P 500. The dollar was up sharply again, as more credit issues surfaced in Europe. RIMM and ORCL were up on good earnings reports, while PALM was down on a disappointing outlook; FDX was down on earnings as well. The S&P500 components were also rebalanced on Friday. Citi shares sold off after weak pricing of it's secondary share offering, while Visa is breaking out to new highs.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 480,000 (chart).
-under the half million mark, but higher than expected. The latest report shows continuing claims at the 5,186,000 level.
Seven more banks were shutdown this week! (list).
Ugly chart! ZLC

Commodities:
Oil prices recovered a bit, closing the week around $73 per barrel.
Natural Gas continued to rise, closing around $5.75.
Gold prices fell some more, closing around $1110.
The US Dollar index rallied again, closing around 78.
Bond prices saw little net change for the week.

Next week will be a short trading week because of the Christmas holiday, with the markets closing early on Thursday.

Market outlook: The S&P500 is still stuck in a trading range, though I expect it to break out sometime soon -perhaps in early January as earnings reports come out. The small cap IWM could still rally up to the October highs in the meantime. Trading through the end of the year will probably be on light volume. Take some time off! Happy Holidays to all.


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Citigroup: The Problem That Won’t Go Away
Treasury Postpones Sale of Citi Shares
GM to end Saab brand after talks with buyer fail
Harvard's Toxic Swaps: Interest Rate Bets Cost It Billions
4 Big Mortgage Backers Swim in Ocean of Debt
More Jobs Jive
Credit card lenders go on a rampage
Credit Suisse to Pay $536 Million Over Violating Sanctions

Stock Market Update -Dec 13th

Once again, the markets were stuck in a trading range this week. Retail sales were higher than expected. The US Dollar was up significantly, causing Gold, Oil, and commodity stocks to falter. The Treasury auctions were weak causing long term rates to ratchet up. Also, airline stocks have been up nicely in the last two weeks as oil prices have dropped.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 474,000! (chart).
-again under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
Three more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices saw a huge drop, closing the week around $70 per barrel. Natural Gas was up, closing around $5.20. Gold prices fell some more, closing around $1120. The US Dollar index rallied, closing around 76.50. Bond prices rose, only to drop back down again.


Next week we have the last Fed meeting for the year, the CPI report, and earnings reports from Best Buy, FDX, and RIMM. This is also expiration week, with options and futures contracts expiring on Friday. We could see a volatile week!

Market outloook: In the options market, bears far outnumber the bulls in the market indexes (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, etc.); if you are a contrarian this would be a bullish indicator for the market this week. The market has been stalled for the past few weeks, and in the absence of bad news we could see a Santa Claus rally! The charts also indicate that the market is about to move out of this recent consolidation area. The small cap IWM is the only index that has not taken out the October high, so we could see a nice break-out there, and the S&P500 could maybe take out the 1110 level.

Bank 'problem' list climbs to 552
Debt Limit to Be Increased By Up to $1.9 Trillion
Treasury Yield Curve Steepens to Highest Since 1980 Amid Sales
Treasurys decline after weak bond auction
Are Your U.S. Treasury Bonds Safe?
CIT rises from the ashes
Goldman changes compensation after investor pressure
Citigroup Nearing Deal to Raise Over $10 Billion to Repay TARP

Senate approves huge spending bill
Recession Elsewhere, but It’s Booming in China
Mohamed El-Erian: Tough times ahead
Understanding the Dollar's Reversal: Who Will Feel the Pain?

Stock Market Update -Dec 6th

We saw another week of indecision in the markets. The monthly jobs report on Friday was a big positive surprise coming in at 11,000 job losses (125,000 was expected), with the unemployment rate also falling to 10%.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 457,000! (chart).
-again under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
Six more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to fall again, closing the week around $75 per barrel. Natural Gas also fell, closing around $4.60. Gold hit record prices again this week, before a huge drop on Friday, closing around $1170. The US Dollar index was down, but rose sharply on Friday closing around the 76 level. Bond prices saw a huge drop for the week.

Next week could be a quiet week with no major reports or events.

Market analysis: The market continues to be range-bound for the third week in a row. It's not clear where it is headed next. If the dollar begins to rally as it did on Friday, the market could sell off some more. The energy sector seems to be weakening. Also, AAPL had a big selloff on Friday, and could start to drag the NASDAQ down.

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TrimTabs: The Real Job Loss Number Was 255,000
CHART OF THE DAY: Depressed Americans Quit The Labor Force
Fudging Losses Is Easy When the FDIC Does It, Too
What Lurks on the Books of Banks
Junk mortgages: It just gets worse
Bank of America raises $19 billion for TARP exit
Kuwait Investment Fund Sells Citigroup Stake for $4.1 Billion
Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar
Mortgage Rates in the U.S. Decline to a Record Low

Stock Market Update -Nov 29th

The market ended more or less flat for the week, after dropping on Friday on news of the Dubai debt problem. We seem to be stuck in a trading range for the past two weeks as investors continue to get more jittery about this market (see chart below).

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 466,000! (chart). -finally under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
No bank shutdowns to report this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to fall, closing the week around $76 per barrel. Natural Gas jumped up, closing around $5.20. And we saw record Gold prices again this week, closing around $1174. The US Dollar index was down again, closing around the 75 level. Bond prices continued to rise!


Next week we get the all important monthly 'jobs' report on Friday, a potential market mover.

Market analysis: We seem to be stuck in a trading range for the past two weeks. The market needs some good news if it is to rally any further at this point. Volume seems to be drying up too...


Behind the Great Stock Rally of 2009
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European shares tumble amid Dubai debt worries
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Dollar falls to 14-year low vs yen, touching 86.51
Treasuries Gain Most This Month on Dubai’s Debt Payment Delay
The FDIC Is $8.2 Billion in the Hole

Stock Market Update -Nov 22nd

The markets sputtered a bit this week to end mostly unchanged. We may be topping out here as we see a mixed picture over the past week and the past month (see chart). There was a big drop in housing starts reported this week, and mortgage delinquencies set a new record in the third quarter of 2009.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 505,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but trending down)
Another bank was shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were mostly flat closing the week around $78 per barrel. Natural Gas fell a bit to close around $4.50. We saw record Gold prices again this week, closing around $1163. The US Dollar index was up a bit, closing around the 75 level. Bond prices were up for the week.


Next week is a shortened trading week because of the Thanksgiving holiday. All eyes are on Black Friday sales.

Market analysis: The market seems to be stalling at this point. Retail sales on Friday may give it a push in one direction or the other. I believe that traders should book some profits at this level, anticipating a pullback. The chart is still bullish however for longer term investors.

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Jobless Rate Up in 29 States, Hitting Records in 4 of Them
GM has post-bankruptcy loss of $1.15 billion

Graphic: Prime borrowers behind on mortgages
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Stock Market Update -Nov 15th

Another 'up' week for the markets, with the S&P500 having regained its losses from mid-October, and the DOW having surpassed the mid-October high. The small caps however have not regained even half of those losses, so the rally might be in question. The consumer sentiment report on Friday was worse than expected, and the trade deficit was also worse than expected.

The thanksgiving holiday sale season next week will tell us some more about how much consumers are actually willing to spend at this point.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 502,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but trending down)
Three more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell to close the week around $76 per barrel. Natural Gas fell to close around $4.40. Gold prices rallied to close around $1116 this week. The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged for the week closing around the 75 level. Bond prices were up for the week.

Next week there are a couple of economic reports which could move the market, a few more earnings reports, and Options expiration on Friday. The huge put-call ratio on the indexes might help the market stay up for the week -a contrarian indicator (a high put-call ratio = option traders are very bearish!)

Market analysis: The S&P 500 did in fact climb back up to the 1100 level I mentioned last week, but only stayed there for a day (above chart). I continue to believe that the market will be under some pressure going forward, but it might continue to hold up this week with the options traders being very bearish on the major indexes (a contrarian view).

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Pfizer Broke the Law by Promoting Drugs for Unapproved Uses

Stock Market Update -Nov 8th

This was a green week for the market! (see middle chart below). The DOW is back over 10,000 again, even though unemployment is now at 10.2%, following 22 straight months of job losses and $800 billion in government stimulus (almost 3 million more jobs have been lost since the stimulus was announced). Seems like they are stimulating more unemployment! Speaking of which, unemployment benefits were extended yet again for up to 20 weeks. Also Fannie Mae announced a deal for homeowners (who can't afford their home) to now rent the home from the government -interesting chart!

Earnings season is almost over now, so the market will be mostly driven by news events. This week Warren Buffet bought BNI, a railroad company for $26 billion.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 512,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Five more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up then down to close the week around $77 per barrel. Natural Gas fell to close at $4.60. Gold prices hit $1100 this week, as India buys 200 tons from the IMF! The US Dollar index was down for the week closing just under the 76 level. Bond prices ended mostly unchanged.

Next week we get earnings reports from DIS and WMT among others, and more bond sales from the Treasury to raise money. The bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veteran's Day.

Market analysis: The market turned back up this week, bouncing off the 1030 level on the S&P 500. It could continue all the way back up to the recent high at 1100, or it could turn back down again around 1075 (forming a bearish head & shoulders pattern). I expect the latter.

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Fannie Mae asks for $15 billion in additional funding
What to do about Fannie and Freddie: Restructure -- or terminate?
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Freddie Mac loses $6.3B in 3Q

Credit cards gouge consumers ahead of new law
Consumer debt drops for record eighth straight month
Gold futures top $1,100, oil prices sink on economic worries
JPMorgan Settlement: Bank To Pay SEC Over $700M Over Charges Of Illegal Payments
It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Fed maintains promise to keep rates low
Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Stock Market Update -Nov 1st

Except for a rally on Thursday after the GDP report, the market was down for another week (I wrote last week "...We could see another 'market down, prop up the bonds' week"). Also this was the first monthly loss in the S&P since the rally began in March. We could be at a turning point in this nine month rally. Banks are in the headlines again, with the financial sector showing a lot of weakness.

New Unemployment claims for this week came in at 530,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Nine more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell from the high to close the week around $77 per barrel. Natural Gas was back up to the $5.00 level. Other commodities gave up some ground as the dollar regained some strength. Gold prices were down as well. The US Dollar index closed up for the week around the 76 level. Bond prices were up as the stock market fell.

The national debt crossed the $12 trillion mark this week (see clock on the left). The government doesn't seem to be too concerned though!

The Dollar relationship to the Stock market

Next week we get more earnings reports including Ford, Cisco, and Starbucks. We also have the Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday, and the monthly Jobs report on Friday, both potentially big market moving events. We will probably see unemployment finally pushing over 10%.

Market analysis: The market was down again this week, on heavy volume, and closed October as the weakest month since the March rally started. We could be in for a bigger correction. As an investor, now would be a good time to get defensive and hedge or protect your gains. As a trader, hopefully you are already out of any long positions.

Note that BIDU was down $50 on Monday after they reported earnings. RIMM continues to breakdown, and AAPL finally started to crack this week too -all market leaders on the NASDAQ.

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Stock Market Update -Oct 25th

This week the market showed some signs of weakness. Strong earnings from AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and others kept the market from falling further (see chart below; the Technology sector was the only one up this week). The DOW also fell back below the 10,000 level, and Oil prices continued to rise.

New Unemployment claims for this week rose to 531,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Seven more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to rise, closing the week around $80 per barrel. Natural Gas remained in a trading range, closing around $4.80. Other commodities rose too (gas, corn, soybeans, wheat, etc).

The US Dollar stabilized a bit, keeping Gold prices in check as well. Bond prices fell further (higher long term interest rates).


Next week we get another barrage of earnings reports, including some of the large oil companies. Also the 3rd quarter GDP report on Thursday, which could be a market mover! This one could be a big disappointment.

Another huge week for government borrowing too, as over $100 billion in bonds will be issued next week. We could see another 'market down, prop up the bonds' week...

Market analysis: We had very strong earnings last week, but the market stumbled. We could see more of the same next week. During earnings season, it's difficult to gauge market direction with any real degree of accuracy so again, be careful. We could see some more downside action.

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Amazon shares hit all-time high
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Home sales rise 9.4 pct. in Sept., beat forecast
Keeping up with an avalanche of troubled mortgages

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Stock Market Update -Oct 18th

The market continued to rally this week after srong earnings from Intel, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Citi and Bank of America reported losses. The Financials overall are starting to pull back a bit (see chart below), while the Energy sector continues to do well. The weak dollar also helped the market rally. The DOW finally topped the 10,000 mark, but was not able to hold that level.

New Unemployment claims for this week fell to 514,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but shrinking)
Another bank was shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up again, closing the week around $78 per barrel, while Natural Gas seems to be in a trading range, closing around $4.80. The US Dollar dropped further this week, keeping Gold prices up. Bond prices continued to fall.

By the way, how is the auto business doing? Here is an excerpt from an article I read this week: "China’s auto sales jumped 78% in September. US auto sales fell 41%..."


Next week we get a slew of earnings reports. Some of the companies reporting include:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
AAPL	CAT	AMGN	AXP	HON
BBT	KO	EBAY	AMZN	SLB
TXN	PFE	FCX	COF	MSFT
	YHOO	MS	MRK
		WFC	MMM
			MCD
			UPS

Market analysis: The rally continues until Wall Street decides that the party is over, so enjoy the run, but be careful. Apple reports earnings on Monday after the market closes and could be an indicator of how the rest of the week might turn out

Earnings:
Goldman Sachs Profit Climbs Well Past Estimates
JPMorgan Crushes Profit Expectations
Bank of America posts $2.2 billion loss
Citigroup posts loss, takes $8 bln in credit losses
Google profit, sales top estimates

Bailed-Out Banks Raking In Big Profits
CIT Says CEO Peek to Resign; Bankruptcy Looms
Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'
Foreclosures On Pace To Hit 3.5 Million
Recession Will Be 'Full-Blown Depression': Strategist
The Greatest Depression Is Coming
U.S. deficit biggest since 1945
U.S. ran deficit of $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009

It's Official: No Social Security Increase
Harvard’s Bet on Interest Rate Rise Cost $500 Million to Exit
SEC Enforcement Division Hires Goldman Sachs VP As COO
Bonuses Put Goldman in Public Relations Bind
A Monster $500+ Billion Market Is Rising in the East
Google's Android Ready To Explode Past The iPhone

Baby survives after falling under train (video)

Stock Market Update -Oct 11th

The market was up this week, hitting a new high for the year as Alcoa reported better than expected earnings, and as we saw further weakness in the US Dollar (I suggested last week, we could see a contrarian rally as everyone was expecting further weakness!). Energy and Financials have been leading the way for the past month (see chart below). The big story this week was Gold soaring to new highs!



New Unemployment claims for this week were 521,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
No bank shutdowns this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up, closing this week around $72 per barrel, Natural Gas was both up and down, closing around $4.70. The US Dollar dropped further this week, pushing Gold prices up to new highs around $1060! Bond prices tumbled.

The US Dollar has been making headline news this week. Here is a 'big picture' look at where we are right now (20 year chart):


Next week kicks off a new earnings season with the following companies among those reporting: Tue: INTC, JNJ Wed: JPM Thu: C, GS, GOOG, IBM Fri: BAC, GE. Don't forget that this week we also have Option expiration on Friday.

Market analysis: We moved higher this week as I suspected we would. I think we can easily see more upside this coming week as we get earnings reports from some of the big banks and technology companies. DOW 10,000 is an attractive target for the market, in spite of what the chart readers might think!

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Rio Rising
China buys the world
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Stock Market Update -Oct 4th

The markets continued to pull back this week, with the jobs report on Friday showing continued weakness in the economy (see chart below). The unemployment rate now stands at 9.8%. October kicks off another quarterly earnings reports season, and I believe this will drive market direction for the next month. This past quarter posted the best quarterly performance in the market in 25 years.

Meanwhile the government continues to borrow billions more each week, building up a huge debt bubble (the debt clock on the left just crossed the $11.9 trillion mark). Also the FDIC (which insures your deposits at the banks, around $9 trillion) is now out of money, with hundreds more banks still expected to fail! Personal bankruptcies are on the rise (over 1 million so far this year). And the 'experts' say we are coming out of the recession!

New Unemployment claims for this week were 551,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Three more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices seem to be in a trading range, closing this week around $70 per barrel, Natural Gas continued to rally, closing around $4.70, and Gold closed just over $1000.

The US Dollar also seems to be in a trading range, and Bond prices continue to rally, as the stock market dips.

The real problem with the economy! (click to view)

Next week begins a new earnings season, with Alcoa starting things off on Wednesday.

Market analysis: The market has pulled back for a second week in a row, as investors fear a drop in October. If you have a contrarian view, this negative sentiment may actually cause prices to go up. We have now pulled back to the 50 period moving average which may also provide support for the market.

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Bank Failures: 1,000 Banks to Fail, FDIC Running out of Money
Banks Have Us Flying Blind on Depth of Losses
Investors in Treasuries, Dollars Defy Common Sense

Stock Market Update -Sep 27th

The markets pulled back this week after the Fed meeting on Wednesday (technical chart). I think we could see DOW 10,000 before we get a bigger downturn however, since it is so close to this level. There was a big drop in RIMM shares on Thursday as they announced earnings, showing a big miss in sales (is Apple eating their lunch?). This could be a preview of more to come when earnings season starts up in 2 weeks.

New Unemployment claims for this week were 530,000.
(still over the half million mark every week)
Another bank was shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices dropped this week to close around $66 per barrel, Natural Gas continued to rally, closing around $4.00, and Gold dropped to $990.

The US Dollar in x finally gained a bit of strength, while Bond prices rallied, a reflection of the dip in the stock market. A lot of money has been flowing into bond funds (e.g. LQD)

Next week marks the end of the quarter, and the fiscal year end for many funds, a potential market mover. Another big market mover is the monthly jobs report due on Friday.

Market analysis: We did get the pullback I mentioned last week; not sure if it's over yet though. We could eventually still see that run to DOW 10,000 before a market downturn (if we get one). Note that if the dollar continues to rally, stocks will fall, and gold will fall as well.

Stocks at a tipping point ahead of crucial week
Stocks' rally to be tested by jobs data
The bear market is not over (video)
Corporate insiders continue to increase the pace of their selling
Irrational exuberance in the bond market?

Apple closes out strong fiscal year
The Biggest Government Bailout Is Yet To Come -Itself
Will US repeat mistakes of 1937?
China stocks and funds: Top picks from three advisors

Stock Market Update -Sep 20th

Another week, another rally in the market. Never mind that for yet another week, we see over 1/2 million new unemployment claims again; we are now on month 9 with the same high unemployment numbers! Here is what I said in my Jan 11th post: "We got more bad news from the jobs report on Friday, showing an unemployment rate of 7.2%, a loss of 524,000 jobs in December, and the worst year for job losses since 1945 (2.6 million jobs lost in 2008). " That was back in January and it continues to get worse.

New Unemployment claims for this week were over the half million mark again (545,000).
Two more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices closed around $72 per barrel, Natural Gas rallied a bit to close around $3.75, and Gold closed above $1000 again. The US Dollar index continued to fall, and Bond prices were more or less unchanged.



Next week there is a Fed meeting, though no new announcements are expected. We are approaching the end on the 3rd quarter, so you can probably expect more buying on the part of the mutual fund companies to make their portfolios look good.

Market analysis: The up-trend continues, and at this rate we could see DOW 10,000 soon! We could first see a brief pullback after this recent run, but the overall trend is up.

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Stock Market Update -Sep 13th

The markets rallied again this week, with the S&P 500 closing at a new high for the year. Interestingly, the DOW closed at 9605 on Friday (9/11 anniversary), the exact same price where it closed on 9/11 eight years ago!

Also of note, if you believe in the 'buy and hold' stock investment philosophy, your investment has returned a big fat ZERO in 8 years; it pays to protect your assets and to exit the market whenever the trend turns negative.

Stocks, bonds, and gold all rallied this week! This isn't normal so I expect one of these to pull back next week.

New Unemployment claims for this week were over the half million mark again (550,000).
Three more banks were shut were down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices closed around $69 per barrel, Natural gas rallied a bit to close around $3.00. Gold finally closed above $1000, a record close. The US Dollar index continued to fall, closing just over 76. Bond prices were up for the week.


Next week we get more economic reports -PPI, CPI, Retail sales, and housing. Friday also marks expiration day for options and futures contracts.

Market analysis: The market continues to rally, though bonds also rallied this week. Normally these trade in opposite directions, so next week we could see stocks or bonds reverse course. Meanwhile the weak dollar continues to support the rally in stocks and in gold.

Is this rally for real?
Insiders sell like there's no tomorrow
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month
Obama imposes tariffs on Chinese tires
Dear Chairman Bernanke -The Chinese send their congratulations.
China Raises the Money-Printing Alarm
Beijing Backs Derivatives Fights

Federal deficit surges to $1.38 trillion through August
The Trade Deficit Threatens Our Recovery
Understanding the Inflation In the Pipeline
The dilemma of the diving dollar
A Year Later, Little Change on Wall St.
Credit Rating Firms Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s And Morgan Stanley Are Running Scared...
WaMu: The forgotten bank failure
In Florida, Vestiges of the Boom
Construction Loans Falter, a Bad Omen for Banks
As an Exotic Mortgage Resets, Payments Skyrocket

Stock Market Update -Sep 6th

The market dipped early in the week, only to regain some strength on Thursday and Friday. The much anticipated monthly jobs report on Friday showed a higher unemployment rate, now at 9.7%, but the market rallied anyway!

New Unemployment claims for the week were just under 600,000 again.
Five more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices tumbled to close around $68 per barrel, while Natural gas continued to fall below $3.00. Gold rallied to close just under the $1000 level at $996, the US Dollar index seems to be stuck around 78, and Bond prices were up for the week, then fell on Friday as the stock market rallied.

Next week there really isn't much on the calendar that might affect the market (Monday is a holiday. Hurray!)

Market analysis: This week might give us a better clue as to whether this market wants to go higher or lower from here -right now there is no clear direction. The rally late in the week was on light volume compared to the huge down volume on Tuesday, which might indicate further weakness ahead.

G-20 Finance Chiefs Vow to Sustain Stimulus Plans, Discuss Exit
China to buy up to $50 billion of first-ever IMF bonds
China: Spreading the Sovereign Wealth to Buy Overseas Commodity Assets
China Is Now A Net SELLER Of U.S. Treasury Notes And Bonds!
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac... A Year Later
A year later, exit from Fannie Mae, Freddie is a perplexing quandary for government
Problem Bank List (Unofficial) Sep 4, 2009
Bond vigilantes fret over Japan

Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, touts high-security vault
Gold Fever Heats Up Precious-Metals Funds
China Urges Citizens to Buy Gold and Silver
FINRA to Raise Leveraged ETF Margin Requirements
DXO Becomes First Victim of CFTC Activity

Stock Market Update -Aug 30th

The market was more or less flat for the week. New Unemployment claims were below 600,000 again. And three more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil closed around $72 per barrel, while Natural gas closed under $3 again. Gold closed the week around $957, the US Dollar index was more or less flat for the week, likewise for Bond prices.



Market Analysis: The market seems to be stalling out at these levels as we close out August and summer trading. The 'pros' will be back starting next month so we'll see which direction they decide to take the market. Right now it's anyones guess, so I'll wait till we have a better signal on we are headed next.

Dow snaps winning streak
Intel raises outlook on PC sales optimism
Pace of Insider Sales Continues to Escalate
Can the economy recover if incomes remain flat?
FDIC: Number of troubled banks rises to 416
Meltdown 101: Why banks' struggles have worsened
AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG
Junk bonds' best days might be behind

Stock Market Update -Aug 23rd

The market rallied this week, surging to new highs for the year. The rally was broad-based, as seen in the sector chart below. The market seems to rally whenever the US dollar drops. Meanwhile the debt clock just crossed the $11 trillion, 900 billion mark, on its way to $12 trillion! Hmmm....

New Unemployment claims were below 600,000 again, this time at 576,000, a bit higher than last week. Also, four more banks were shut down by regulators, including Texas based Guaranty Bank, the second biggest bank failure for 2009 (list).

Commodities: Oil prices rallied to a new high for the year at just under $74 per barrel as the US dollar slumped, while Natural gas hit a seven-year low of below $3.00. Gold closed the week around $953, the US Dollar index dropped to around 78, and Bond prices were up for the week, then fell on Friday as the stock market continued to rally.


Next week we get a few more economic reports as we wind down the slow summer trading session.

Market analysis: This week the S&P500 broke out above the early August trading range (the 1000 area) to close at 1026 (see chart above). This could signal more upside momentum, even though the market is now trading at fairly lofty levels. If this uptrend continues, we could see the S&P500 rally back up to the 1100 level (the market was trading at this level last September around the time of the collapse of Lehman, AIG, and other large financial institutions).

...oops -just add another $2 trillion! White House Adds $2 Trillion to Deficit Forecasts

New signs raise hopes for recovery
Bernanke: Economy on verge of recovery, worst of crisis is over
Is This Rally The Final Kiss Good Bye?
For Volatile US Stock Market, September May Be Real Test
World Bankers Suggest Rebound May Have Begun
World Economy Emerging From Worst Recession Since World War II
U.S. existing-home sales jump to 2-year high
Mortgage delinquencies hit another record: MBA

If Asset Prices Are Dropping, Why Are Bank Stocks Rising?
Meredith Whitney’s Good News… Only 300 Bank Failures
As U.S. bank failures rise, more foreign banks may make bids
Foreign banks can't save everyone
Treasury Makes Money on Citi Bailout
America May Need to Find Another Financier
As China Stocks Retreat, Fears Grow About Economic Impact
Danger for the Dollar